Workflow
煤炭股趋势上涨是否代表“再通胀交易”回归?
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-08-17 05:50

Group 1 - The recent strong performance of coal stocks is interpreted as a return of "re-inflation logic," but the core driver of this increase is not a systematic rise in commodity prices, but rather the repricing of high-dividend assets [2][3][14] - The current policy focus is on "anti-involution" and "expanding domestic demand," which emphasizes optimizing resource allocation through the construction of a "national unified market," differing fundamentally from past policies aimed at raising PPI through forced capacity reduction [3][14] - The rise in coal stocks is attributed to a slowdown in the decline of commodity prices, stable cash flows, and improved investment cost-effectiveness of dividend returns [3][14] Group 2 - The attractiveness of coal stocks has significantly increased, with the average industry dividend yield exceeding 5% in 2024, and some leading companies reaching over 10%, far surpassing government bond yields [4][15] - Recent policies, including the strengthening of social security contributions and the revitalization of state-owned real estate, have reinforced market preference for high-dividend assets [5][21] - The social security contribution policy solidifies the funding source for social security but may increase cost pressures on small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises [5][21] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests maintaining a balanced approach of offense and defense, focusing on technology sectors (AI, robotics, computing) while also continuing to invest in high-dividend assets in the Hong Kong market and actively monitoring non-bank financial sectors for policy expectations and dividend returns [6][24] - The market is expected to continue a strong oscillating pattern in the third quarter, with a further strengthening of corporate profit differentiation [6][24]