超长债周报：30-10国债期限利差继续走阔-20250817

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market tumbled again. Despite weak July economic data, the stock market reached 3700 points, suppressing bonds and causing ultra - long bonds to plunge, with the 30 - year Treasury yield hitting a short - term high. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. - In the short term, the bond market will face a game between expectations and reality. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the range of [1.65%, 1.75%]. The weak real fundamentals support the bond market, while policy changes and investor sentiment suppress it. Currently, the term spread of 30 - year Treasuries and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are both low, with limited spread protection [2][3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market tumbled. Weak economic data in July, including rapid declines in consumption and investment and negative credit growth, were overshadowed by the stock market's rise to 3700 points, which comprehensively suppressed bonds. Ultra - long bonds plunged, and the 30 - year Treasury yield reached a short - term high. Trading activity increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - 30 - year Treasury: As of August 15, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasuries was 29BP, at a historically low level. In July, the economy faced downward pressure, with GDP growth at about 4.3% and deflation risks. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the [1.65%, 1.75%] range. The current term spread is low, with limited protection [2][12]. - 20 - year CDB Bond: As of August 15, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasuries was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year Treasury situation, the short - term bond market faces a game between expectations and reality, and the current variety spread is low, with limited protection [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of all bonds. Local government bonds and Treasuries were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 11 - 15, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 565 billion yuan. By variety, Treasuries were 350 billion, local government bonds were 178 billion, etc. By term, 20 - year bonds had the largest issuance at 436 billion [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 2,953 billion. By variety, ultra - long Treasuries are 830 billion, and ultra - long local government bonds are 2,123 billion [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 13,309 billion, accounting for 14.6% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover and proportion of most varieties increasing [29]. Yield - Last week, the bond market tumbled. The 30 - year Treasury yield hit a short - term high. Yields of various ultra - long bonds increased, with the 30 - year Treasury yield rising by 9BP to 2.05%, and the 20 - year CDB bond yield rising by 6BP to 2.09% [43]. Spread Analysis - Term Spread: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 29BP, up 3BP from the previous week, at the 12% quantile since 2010 [51]. - Variety Spread: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed and was at a low absolute level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasuries, and 20 - year railway bonds and Treasuries were 2BP and 6BP respectively, down 3BP and 5BP from the previous week, at the 3% and 4% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30 - year Treasury Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury futures contract TL2509 closed at 117.48 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The total trading volume was 870,600 lots, and the open interest was 151,500 lots, with trading volume increasing significantly and open interest decreasing slightly compared to the previous week [56].