Economic Growth - The Guosen High-Frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned positive this week, indicating improved economic growth momentum[1] - Index B showed a seasonal rebound, with a standardized increase of 0.43, outperforming historical averages[1] - Consumption and real estate sectors showed relative strength, while investment sector sentiment declined[1] Price Trends - Food prices increased by approximately 1.0% month-on-month, while non-food prices decreased by about 0.1%[2] - Overall CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline to -0.3%[2] - PPI is projected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month, with a significant year-on-year recovery to -2.6%[2] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential upward movement in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index next week[1][19] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of August 22, 2025, is 2.48%, while the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to be 3,207.64[20]
宏观经济宏观周报：高频指标超季节性回升-20250817
Guoxin Securities·2025-08-17 05:55