资金面或延续稳态

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the capital interest rates maintained a "low-level and low-volatility" state, with a slight increase during the tax period. The central bank's flexible injections and large banks' high net lending maintained a comfortable liquidity environment. The market's expectation of further monetary easing converged, but the capital market remained relatively stable, with fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open market operations were mainly net withdrawals, but turned to net injections during the tax period, and a 6M repurchase agreement was implemented on the tax day. The capital interest rates were close to the bottom, rising slightly on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending reached a new high, and the yield spread of certificates of deposit (CDs) in the primary and secondary markets fluctuated narrowly, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [1]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report confirmed sufficient liquidity, suggesting that interest rates may remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited room for further decline. The central bank may be cautious in using aggregate tools, focusing more on implementing existing policies and improving the transmission mechanism, and paying attention to non-interest financing costs. The fundamental purpose of the financial system to serve the real economy may be more prominent, and the market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [1]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to remain stable, with limited upward pressure on interest rates and a need for more policy signals to break through the lower limit. The maturity scale of reverse repurchases and CDs will decrease, and the influencing factors will be staggered, making the market fluctuations controllable. The coordinated monetary and fiscal policies will ensure sufficient liquidity supply. Interest rates may continue to show "low - volatility and rigidity", and it is unlikely to break through the previous low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Capital Market Steady State - This week, the capital market remained comfortable, with minor fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net withdrawals from Monday to Thursday, but turned to net injections on August 15, the tax deadline, along with a 5000 - billion - yuan 6M repurchase agreement. Capital interest rates were "low - level and low - volatility", rising on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending remained high, and CD prices were stable, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [11]. - The continuous loosening of capital in August was due to the phased injection of repurchase agreements and the fact that August is not a major tax - paying month, with lower tax revenues and reduced mid - month payment pressure [18][20]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report was more positive about the domestic economy, emphasizing strategic stability. The central bank may continue to "targeted and precise" regulation, with short - term liquidity remaining stable. The central bank is concerned about financial risk prevention, may be cautious in using aggregate tools, and will focus on supporting the real economy through structural policies. The market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [21][22]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to be stable. The pressure will ease as the maturity scale of reverse repurchases, government bonds, and CDs decreases. The influencing factors will be staggered, and with the coordinated policies, there is no need to worry about liquidity. Interest rates are likely to remain "low - level and low - volatility", and it is difficult to break through the previous low without additional liquidity or policy support [25]. 3.2. Open Market Operations - From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases, 1126.7 billion yuan in maturities, and 500 billion yuan in 6M repurchase agreements. From August 18 - 22, the open - market maturity will be 931.8 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [31]. - The reverse repurchase balance continued to decline. As of August 15, it was 711.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 414.9 billion yuan from August 8. In August, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature for 300 billion yuan, and repurchase agreements will mature for 900 billion yuan (400 billion yuan for 3M and 500 billion yuan for 6M). The net injection of repurchase agreements was 300 billion yuan [33][35]. 3.3. Government Bonds - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, including 310.3 billion yuan in treasury bond issuance, 91.4 billion yuan in local bond issuance, 95.6 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities, and 73.2 billion yuan in local bond maturities. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 731.2 billion yuan, including 362 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 369.2 billion yuan in local bonds, with 40.1 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities and 167.9 billion yuan in local bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 84.9 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 179.2 billion yuan [38]. - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 214.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 4555.5 billion yuan this year, reaching 74% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 248.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3454.4 billion yuan, reaching 66% of the annual plan [39]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a decrease of about 0.08 percentage points from July and 0.09 percentage points from the same period last year. The predicted excess reserve at the end of July was 4413.6 billion yuan. From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was - 120 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was 2.62 billion yuan, and the tax payment was 998.5 billion yuan [44][45]. 3.5. Money Market - Interest rates increased. As of August 15, compared with August 8, DR001 increased by 9.03 basis points to 1.4%, DR007 increased by 5.47 basis points to 1.48%, R001 increased by 9.78 basis points to 1.44%, and R007 increased by 3.2 basis points to 1.49%. Overnight interest rates hovered around 1.4%. The spreads between various interest rates and the OMO rate also changed [47]. - The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 1.67 basis points and 0.21 basis points to 1.33% and 1.44% respectively. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 27.57 basis points and 7.13 basis points to 1.49% and 1.53% respectively. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.58 basis points and 0.71 basis points to 1.52% and 1.57% respectively. The weekly average of six - month national and city commercial bill transfer rates changed by - 0.03 percentage points to 0.65% and 0.76% respectively [52][55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8151.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.3 billion yuan from August 4 - 8. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2084.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.8 billion yuan from August 4 - 8 [57]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 153.3 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average net lending of large state - owned banks was 4.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan from last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 258.3 billion yuan from last week [60]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - This week (August 11 - 15), the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 130.3 billion yuan, a decrease compared with last week. By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9 - month CDs had the highest net financing [69]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 8.09 months, longer than last week's 6.4 months. Among different types of banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had weighted average issuance terms of 9.8, 8.1, 6.7, and 7.4 months respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.31, 0.67, 0.52, and 0.91 months from last week [73]. - In terms of issuance success rates, joint - stock banks had the highest success rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest success rate, and by credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest success rate [75]. - Next week (August 18 - 24), the maturity scale of CDs will be 797.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.7 billion yuan from this week. The maturity is mainly concentrated in state - owned banks and city commercial banks, and the terms are mainly 1 - year and 3 - month [78][79].