中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报：PVC + NAOH + CL-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the PVC industry, the current upstream PVC price continues to decline, the caustic soda price slightly increases, and the comprehensive profit improves. The downstream demand is weak, and the export order volume slightly deteriorates this week. The strategy suggests appropriate participation in cash - futures arbitrage, a slightly bearish unilateral allocation, a 9 - 1 reverse spread for the inter - month strategy, and continuing to sell the V2509 out - of - the - money call option strategy [10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the upstream manufacturers slightly increase prices, and there are many maintenance plans in the future, with a slight decline in production. The downstream main alumina procurement price slightly increases, and the delivery volume remains at a low level, providing a slight boost to the price. The strategy advises being cautious about the callback risk for the unilateral strategy, and there is no specific suggestion for the cash - futures, inter - month, and option strategies [105]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - This week, the total PVC output is 48.11 tons, a slight increase from last week. Next week, due to many maintenance devices, the output is expected to drop to around 46.85 tons. The export signing volume continues to decrease this week, and the export volume next month is expected to be slightly lower than expected. The apparent demand this week is 43.71 tons, higher than the expected value. The inventory accumulates by 0.15 tons this week, and it may continue to accumulate next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The basis fluctuates with little change. The 9 - 1 spread fluctuates weakly. The export profit improves as the domestic PVC price continues to decline while the overseas price remains stable [8][9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The production profit of most PVC production methods shows a downward trend, while the export profit improves. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong turns from negative to positive [9]. 3.1.4 Supply and Production Profit - The total PVC output shows a certain trend of change, and the production profit of different production methods varies. The production profit of some methods such as imported ethylene method decreases, while the profit of some export methods improves [9]. 3.1.5 Import and Export - The export volume remains stable this week, but the signing volume decreases. The export profit improves due to the decline in domestic prices and stable overseas prices [6][9]. 3.1.6 Demand - The downstream start - up rate is still weak, and the trading is mainly concentrated among cash - futures traders. The domestic demand is not strong [10]. 3.1.7 Inventory - The total inventory accumulates slightly this week, and the inventory of upstream manufacturers decreases, while the inventory of middle - stream traders increases. If the domestic demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation speed may accelerate [6]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - This week, the total caustic soda output is 81.92 tons, a decrease from last week. Next week, the output is expected to continue to increase. The export volume remains stable, and the apparent demand is 78.42 tons this week. The national inventory slightly decreases this week, and it may continue to decrease next week if the apparent demand remains the same [101]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis weakens, and the inter - month spread shows a certain trend of change. The 1 - 5 spread has a certain change trend, and the overall performance needs to be observed [104]. 3.2.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong turns positive, mainly due to the increase in the caustic soda price. The export profit of caustic soda strengthens [104]. 3.2.4 Supply and Production Profit - The caustic soda output is at a high level, and the production profit improves due to the increase in the caustic soda price and the stability of liquid chlorine [104]. 3.2.5 Import and Export - The import and export volumes remain stable, and the export profit strengthens [101][104]. 3.2.6 Demand - The main alumina procurement price slightly increases, and the delivery volume remains at a low level, providing a slight boost to the price [105]. 3.2.7 Inventory - The total inventory of caustic soda decreases slightly this week, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda decreases while the inventory of flake caustic soda increases slightly [101].