甲醇产业链周报：港口持续累库，甲醇震荡偏弱-20250817

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the bullish sentiment in commodities has faded, and methanol has started to return to its fundamentals. Continuous inventory accumulation at ports has exerted significant pressure on the methanol futures market, causing the futures price to decline sharply. Methanol currently has high profits for upstream producers and low profits for downstream producers. After the sentiment fades and it returns to fundamentals, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, methanol is generally weak. After the sentiment fades, it is expected to enter a weakly fluctuating pattern. A weakly fluctuating approach is recommended [3][94]. - For the unilateral strategy, a weakly fluctuating approach is recommended, considering a strategy of selling call options. For the hedging strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [4][95]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices declined this week. On Friday, the basis quote was around 09 - 5 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for paper goods in late September was 09 + 20 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes fluctuated weakly this week. The basis quote for paper goods in late September was around 09 + 20 yuan/ton [17]. - Methanol's coastal basis fluctuated this week. The inland basis also fluctuated. The inland market prices fluctuated this week, and the market prices in the northwest region also fluctuated [26][37]. - The price difference between East China and inland regions of methanol fluctuated weakly [47]. - The PP - 3MA spread rebounded this week. A strategy of going long on PP and short on MA can be considered and a small amount can be held [61][63]. 3. Industry Chain Profits - There were many new methanol production units under maintenance, and the methanol production capacity utilization rate weakened slightly. Many maintenance units resumed production, and methanol production began to increase [69][73]. - The dimethyl ether production capacity utilization rate fluctuated. The formaldehyde production capacity utilization rate rebounded with fluctuations. The production capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins in the northwest region fluctuated at a high level [78][82]. - This week, the production capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins plants fluctuated, and MTO profits continued to recover [85]. 4. Market Expectations - Recently, the bullish sentiment in commodities has faded, and methanol has started to return to its fundamentals. Continuous inventory accumulation at ports has exerted significant pressure on the methanol futures market, causing the futures price to decline sharply. Methanol currently has high profits for upstream producers and low profits for downstream producers. After the sentiment fades and it returns to fundamentals, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. In the long term, methanol is generally weak. After the sentiment fades, it is expected to enter a weakly fluctuating pattern. A weakly fluctuating approach is recommended [3][94]. - For the unilateral strategy, a weakly fluctuating approach is recommended, considering a strategy of selling call options. For the hedging strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [4][95].