华富中证人工智能产业ETF投资价值分析：聚焦AI产业核心赛道，掘金人工智能优质个股

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model: DeepSeek-R1 - Model Construction Idea: The DeepSeek-R1 model aims to innovate in AI technology by reducing dependency on high-end imported GPUs and enhancing cost-effectiveness and performance in global markets[5][12][30] - Model Construction Process: - The model is based on the DeepSeek-V3 architecture and applies reinforcement learning techniques during the post-training phase to significantly improve inference capabilities with minimal labeled data[33] - The model's performance in tasks such as mathematics, coding, and natural language inference is on par with OpenAI's o1 official version[33] - The team also introduced six distilled small models using knowledge distillation techniques, with the 32B and 70B versions surpassing OpenAI o1-mini in several capabilities[34] - The model's training cost was $5.576 million, only 1/10th of GPT-4o's training cost, and its API call cost is 1/30th of OpenAI's similar services[38] - Formula: $\text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}}$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - Model Evaluation: The model is highly cost-effective and adaptable to different application environments, breaking the traditional AI industry's reliance on "stacking computing power and capital"[38][43] Model Backtesting Results - DeepSeek-R1 Model: - AIME pass@1: 9.3 - AIME cons@64: 13.4 - MATH-500 pass@1: 74.6 - GPQA Diamond pass@1: 49.9 - LiveCodeBench pass@1: 32.9 - CodeForces rating: 759.0[36] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor: Standardized Unexpected Earnings (SUE) - Factor Construction Idea: SUE is used to measure the growth potential and latest marginal changes in the prosperity of the industry and individual stocks[57] - Factor Construction Process: - SUE is calculated as: $\text{SUE} = \frac{\text{Single Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Expected Net Profit}}{\text{Standard Deviation of Net Profit YoY Change over the Past 8 Quarters}}$ where Expected Net Profit = Last Year's Same Quarter Actual Net Profit + Average YoY Change in Net Profit over the Past 8 Quarters[55] - Factor Evaluation: SUE effectively measures future earnings growth and the latest marginal changes in prosperity, representing the future trend changes in the industry[57] Factor Backtesting Results - SUE Factor: - 2022: -29.8% - 2023: 15.9% - 2024: 20.1% - 2025 YTD: 11.0%[65]