Minsheng Securities·2025-08-17 09:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of environmental production restrictions has cooled, leading to a focus on demand recovery. Despite high production levels, the steel demand has dropped to seasonal lows, and the market is advised to monitor the transition between peak and off-peak seasons for signs of demand recovery [3][4]. - Long-term capacity management remains a key theme, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply, potentially improving profitability for steel companies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 15, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (down 30 CNY), high wire at 3,470 CNY/ton (down 30 CNY), hot-rolled at 3,460 CNY/ton (down 10 CNY), cold-rolled at 3,880 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY), and medium plate at 3,520 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY) [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.72 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons week-on-week. However, rebar production decreased by 7,300 tons to 2.2045 million tons. Total social inventory rose by 282,900 tons to 9.8978 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in long product profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -24 CNY/ton, +3 CNY/ton, and -3 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also decreased by 18 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, while also suggesting attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [3][4].