Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The precious metals sector is experiencing fluctuations, with gold prices showing a slight decline while silver prices continue to rise. Recent data indicates that London spot gold has decreased by 0.34% to $3,335.50 per ounce, while Shanghai gold has increased by 0.66% to ¥775.80 per gram. Conversely, London spot silver has risen by 3.40% to $37.73 per ounce, and Shanghai silver has increased by 3.21% to ¥9,204 per kilogram [4][9][10] - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical events and changing interest rate expectations, particularly following the conclusion of the "Putin-Trump" summit and the anticipation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] - The report highlights that the U.S. employment market remains resilient, which may prolong the current interest rate cycle, but there is still significant policy space that could create opportunities for gold investments [5] Summary by Sections 1. Price Trends - Over the past two weeks, London spot gold has decreased by 0.34% to $3,335.50 per ounce, while Shanghai gold has increased by 0.66% to ¥775.80 per gram. London spot silver has risen by 3.40% to $37.73 per ounce, and Shanghai silver has increased by 3.21% to ¥9,204 per kilogram. Additionally, London spot palladium has decreased by 8.23% to $1,126 per ounce, while platinum has increased by 2.53% to $1,335 per ounce [9][10] 2. U.S. Economic Data and Federal Reserve Tracking - The report discusses the impact of U.S. economic data on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, noting that July's CPI data was below expectations while PPI data exceeded expectations, creating uncertainty around potential interest rate cuts [4][5][23] 3. Positions and Trading Volume - The report provides insights into trading volumes and positions in the precious metals market, indicating a decline in holdings for both gold and silver on the Shanghai exchange [4][9][10] 4. Domestic and International Price Differences and Gold Benchmark Ratios - The report notes that the domestic gold price difference compared to international prices has increased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [56] 5. Futures Basis Situation - As of the latest data, the international gold basis (spot-futures) has increased by $22.95 to -$46.20 per ounce, while the domestic gold basis has risen by ¥0.83 to -¥2.71 per gram [63]
贵金属双周报：“普特会”结束，降息交易或重启-20250817
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-08-17 09:24