华润三九（000999）：业绩短期承压，产品管线持续扩充

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.80, 2.05, and 2.31 RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 14.81 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 24% to 1.82 billion RMB [2]. - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business faced short-term pressure, with a revenue decline of 18.4% to approximately 6.08 billion RMB, attributed to lower incidence rates of respiratory diseases and adjustments in retail channels [2]. - The prescription drug business continued to grow, achieving a revenue increase of 15.2% to approximately 2.78 billion RMB, with market share steadily improving due to opportunities from national procurement [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 1H25, the company reported a revenue of 14.81 billion RMB, up 5% year-on-year, but a net profit of 1.82 billion RMB, down 24% year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 7.96 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, while net profit fell 47% to 0.55 billion RMB [2]. Business Analysis - The CHC business is under short-term pressure, with a revenue drop of 18.4% to about 6.08 billion RMB, influenced by lower respiratory disease rates and retail channel adjustments [2]. - The prescription drug segment saw a revenue increase of 15.2% to approximately 2.78 billion RMB, benefiting from national procurement opportunities [2]. Innovation and Development - The company is expanding its product pipeline through commercial partnerships and product introductions, including a joint development agreement for a weight loss and diabetes treatment drug [3]. - The company is also conducting Phase I clinical trials for a brain tumor treatment drug, which has received accelerated approval from the FDA [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been adjusted to 3.01 billion, 3.42 billion, and 3.85 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of -10.62%, +13%, and +12.83%, respectively [4]. - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17, 15, and 14 for the years 2025 to 2027 [4].