宏观周报（8月11日~17日）：经济还需更多呵护，美俄峰会引发全球舆论-20250817

Economic Overview - In July, China's economic data showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with domestic demand experiencing a notable decline[3] - The "grab export" strategy in the first half of the year led to better-than-expected economic performance, but it also poses adjustment pressures for the second half of the year[3] Policy Measures - On August 6, multiple departments released a loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators to boost domestic demand[3] - A personal consumption loan subsidy policy was announced on August 12 to further stimulate consumption and support the service sector[3] Domestic Demand Indicators - As of August 15, the metro passenger volume increased by 2.34% year-on-year, while domestic flight numbers averaged 14,700, reflecting a 2.08% year-on-year increase[4] - Retail sales of passenger cars in early August reached 452,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% but a month-on-month increase of 3.0%[4] External Demand Indicators - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2011.4 in early August, a month-on-month increase of 10.1% and a year-on-year increase of 16.6%[4] - The China Export Container Freight Index averaged 1208.8, down 7.4% from July and down 41.5% year-on-year, indicating a decline in export prices[4] Investment Trends - Cement shipment rates and asphalt production rates showed slight increases, but overall infrastructure demand remains weak, with companies adopting a cautious investment stance[5] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces rose by 4.78 percentage points year-on-year to 83.61% as of August 17, indicating resilience in production[6] Inflation and Price Trends - As of August 15, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 1.17% week-on-week, while vegetable prices increased by 3.16%[12] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with significant contributions from service sector inflation[16] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - This week, the issuance of government bonds accelerated, with new special bonds totaling 35 billion and ordinary bonds totaling 275.2 billion, indicating a proactive fiscal stance[13] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, signaling a commitment to maintaining liquidity in the market[13]