Tianfeng Securities·2025-08-17 09:38Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is recovering, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and the upcoming peak demand season in September and October, leading to price increases in copper and aluminum [1][2] - Precious metals are supported by rising trade tensions, weak labor market data in the US, and ongoing expectations for interest rate cuts, which have contributed to an upward trend in gold and silver prices [3] - The small metals sector is showing signs of recovery, particularly in antimony and rare earths, with price increases and improved fundamentals expected [4][5] Summary by Sections Basic and Precious Metals - Copper prices continue to rise, with the Shanghai copper closing at 79,080 CNY/ton, supported by tight supply and increased demand from downstream sectors [1][14] - Aluminum prices have increased, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,660 CNY/ton, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and favorable macro policies [2][19] - Gold and silver prices have risen, with gold averaging 780.72 CNY/gram and silver at 9,210 CNY/kilogram, supported by weak US economic data and inflation trends [3][23] Small Metals - Antimony prices are showing signs of stabilization, with market dynamics indicating limited downward space due to strong cost support and low inventory levels [4] - Rare earth prices have reached new highs, with light rare earth oxide prices rising by 7% to 557,500 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for significant improvement in the sector [5] Other Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with industrial-grade lithium carbonate averaging 83,000 CNY/ton, reflecting strong market demand and supply disruptions [33] - Cobalt prices are experiencing a slight increase, with cobalt intermediate prices rising to 13.1 USD/pound, although demand remains weak [38] - Tin prices have shown strength, with LME tin closing at 33,700 USD/ton, supported by positive macro sentiment despite underlying supply weaknesses [43] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, with black tungsten ore prices reaching 200,500 CNY/ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [48] - Molybdenum prices are on the rise, with 45-50 degree molybdenum concentrate averaging 4,365 CNY/ton, driven by increased demand from steel mills [53]