Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] Core View of the Report - The rumor of Shanxi's ore policy has little impact, and the alumina supply continues to recover slowly. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the release of复产 and new production capacity, and the generated warehouse receipts put pressure on the futures market. The futures price is expected to show an oscillating and weakening trend [5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Last week, domestic ore prices remained stable. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 700 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 was 658 yuan/ton, and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite's delivered含税 price was 596 yuan/ton. The rumored Shanxi bauxite policy mainly affects mines exploiting bauxite under the guise of ceramic soil, most of which are already shut - down. Henan has strict inspections with low mine operation rates. Southern ports were temporarily closed due to rain and typhoons, reducing imported bauxite unloading. The imported ore price range is 73 - 76 dollars/dry ton. Downstream factories have sufficient ore reserves. The shipping volume from Bofa is decreasing. Newly - arrived ore was 340.7 million tons, including 281 million tons from Guinea and 53.7 million tons from Australia. The Cape ship freight from Guinea to China is 25 dollars/ton [12] - Alumina: Last week, alumina spot prices dropped. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 3200 - 3270 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 3243.3 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The imported alumina port quotation was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere was light. The northern market traded 1.1 million tons of spot alumina, with the weighted trading price at 3197 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The Australian import price was about 3230 yuan/ton. The domestic full cost of alumina was 2810 yuan/ton, with a real - time profit of 488 yuan/ton. The industry's good profit drives enterprises to increase production. The national alumina production capacity is 11302 million tons, with 9595 million tons in operation, an increase of 60 million tons from last week, and the operation rate is 84.9% [13] - Demand: Domestically, Guangxi Baise Yinhai Aluminum's operating capacity increased to 14 million tons, up 2 million tons; Yunnan Honghe New Materials' operating capacity increased to 10 million tons, up 5 million tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum plans to transfer 58 million tons of capacity to Xinjiang in 2026 and start production in 2027. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is 4392.3 million tons, up 7 million tons. Overseas demand remained unchanged, with the overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity at 2959 million tons [14] - Inventory: As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 337.5 million tons, up 9 million tons from last week. The inventory at aluminum plants increased, that of alumina enterprises slightly decreased, port inventory fluctuated, and the inventory at delivery warehouses continued to rise [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 65771 tons, up 43807 tons from last week. The domestic futures price was weak. The anti - involution narrative and mine - end disturbances have no substantial impact. The Guinea ore price in the third quarter is about 75 dollars, and the alumina supply has turned slightly surplus, generating warehouse receipts and pressuring the futures [15] 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain This Week - Limited Impact of Parade - Related Production Restrictions: Some high - energy - consuming industries in the north received parade - related production restriction notices. Most alumina producers in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei did not receive such notices. Only one enterprise in Henan may reduce roasting production around the parade, with no significant impact on medium - term output. Transportation of trucks below National V may be restricted from August 16 [16] - Two Alumina Transactions in Western Australia: On August 14, two transactions of a total of 6 million tons of alumina occurred in Western Australia, with the FOB price at 374 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars/ton from August 11, for September - late shipment [16] - Bidding Results of an Electrolytic Aluminum Plant in Xinjiang: On August 11, an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang bid for 1 million tons of alumina. The winning price was 3490 - 3530 yuan/ton, with the low - price range down 20 - 40 yuan/ton from last week [17] 3. Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost End - The section includes charts on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, shipping volume from major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory, domestic caustic soda and steam coal prices, and alumina production costs in different provinces [18][21][23][27][29][31] 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The section contains charts on domestic and imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot price, the ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and domestic alumina weekly supply - demand balance. The table shows the changes in alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacities and supply - demand differences from April to August 2025 [34][38][40][43] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The section includes charts on alumina inventory at electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit, ports, total social inventory, and SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions [46][49][55][56][58]
山西矿石政策传言影响不大，氧化铝供应继续缓慢恢复
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-17 10:16