统计局2025年1-7月房地产数据点评：7月地产基本面继续走弱，期待新一轮政策放松

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to weaken, with new housing sales and investment indicators declining sharply. However, recent policy changes in Beijing may signal the beginning of a new round of easing, potentially opening a window for speculation in real estate stocks [4][60] - In the first seven months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. New housing starts and completed housing areas also saw significant declines [3][35] - The average selling price of new residential properties in 2025 was 9,613 yuan per square meter, down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in property prices, particularly in first-tier cities [16][60] Summary by Sections Sales and Investment Data - In July 2025, the total sales of commercial housing amounted to 53.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, marking a significant decline compared to previous months [5][60] - The cumulative sales area for commercial housing in the first seven months was 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year [3][5] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in July was 9,326 yuan per square meter, down 6.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a more pronounced price drop compared to second and third-tier cities [16][60] - The prices of new and second-hand homes in 70 cities showed improvement, but first-tier cities' second-hand home prices continued to decline [4][16] Development and Funding - Real estate development investment in July was 6,922 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%, indicating a worsening trend in funding for real estate companies [35][49] - The total funding available to real estate companies was 57,287 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, with significant declines in pre-sales and personal mortgage loans [35][49] Construction Activity - New housing starts in the first seven months totaled 35,206 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year, while completed housing areas were 25,034 million square meters, down 16.5% [49][60] - The monthly data for new housing starts and completions showed significant fluctuations, but the cumulative decline in new starts is narrowing [49][60]