海外周报20250817：美联储全年降息预期仍存在回调风险-20250817

Economic Indicators - The U.S. July core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, ending a five-month streak of underperformance against expectations, but did not exceed forecasts, leading to heightened interest in rate cuts[1] - The July PPI surged by 0.95%, significantly surpassing the expected 0.2%, indicating ongoing tariff impacts on wholesale prices[1] - Retail sales in July rose by 0.5%, slightly below the expected 0.6%, but showed resilience with a revision from a previous increase of 0.6% to 0.9%[1] Interest Rate Expectations - Current market pricing suggests an 84.5% probability of a rate cut in September, with an expectation of 2.187 cuts throughout the year, which may be overly optimistic[2] - In a more optimistic scenario, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates twice this year, in September and December; in a pessimistic scenario, only once in October[2] - The anticipated rate cuts for 2026 are projected to be 4, 5, or 6 times under pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic scenarios, respectively[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 4.316%, while the 2-year yield fell by 1.2 basis points to 3.751%[1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.94% and 0.81%, respectively, while gold prices dropped by 1.81% to $3,336 per ounce[1] Geopolitical Context - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict was positively received, potentially easing geopolitical tensions and improving market risk appetite[2] - The lack of new sanctions from Trump post-meeting may alleviate some tariff-related risks, contributing to a more favorable market outlook[2] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected policy shifts from Trump, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high-interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]