美国通胀超预期，美元高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains high, with most stock markets rising and most bond yields increasing. The US inflation is higher than expected, and the US dollar index is oscillating at a high level. The market will continue to play the game around economic data, and stock market volatility will increase. It is expected that the market risk preference will continue to rise, and the US dollar index will oscillate at a high level. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine situation needs to be continuously observed [9][36] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - The market risk preference remains high. Most stock markets rise, and most bond yields increase. The yield of US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The price of gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The VIX index drops to 15. The spot commodity index closes down, and the price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel [9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, including both US and Chinese A-share markets. The S&P 500 index rises 0.94%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.7%, the Hang Seng Index rises 1.65%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises 3.73%. The market returns to trading based on fundamental economic data and continues the game on the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US inflation has room to continue rising, putting monetary policy in a dilemma. The stock market volatility will increase. The domestic stock market reaches a new high, but the fundamental data is weak [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - The yields of most global bond markets rise, and the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The yields of most eurozone government bonds rise, and the yields of most emerging market bonds fall. The yield of 10-year Chinese government bonds rises to 1.75%. The domestic bond market remains weak [14][19][23] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB rises slightly by 0.01%, the euro rises 0.52%, the pound rises 0.75%, the yen rises 0.37%, the Swiss franc rises 0.19%, and the ringgit, rupee, real, and rand appreciate, while the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Korean won, and peso depreciate [26][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - The price of spot gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. Gold is in a range-bound state in the short term. The price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel. The geopolitical risk gives a certain premium, but the global crude oil demand outlook is not good, and the oil price is difficult to rise continuously. The spot commodity index oscillates and closes down [30][31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US inflation is higher than expected. The core CPI is 3.1%, and the PPI far exceeds expectations. The impact of tariffs on prices is obvious, and the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts falls. It is expected that a substantial interest rate cut in September is basically impossible, and a moderate interest rate cut is the basic expectation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still difficult to end [32][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US new housing starts and building permits in July - Wednesday: China's LPR in August - Thursday: Manufacturing PMIs of France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK, and the US in August; Federal Reserve interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]