Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-17 11:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in the performance of the metals sector, with the non-ferrous metals index rising by 36.77% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 29.98 percentage points [5][9] - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, driven by increased production and investment in infrastructure [4][11] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 4.55% [4] - The non-ferrous metals index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.25 percentage points, with notable increases in copper (5.95%) and aluminum (5.04%) prices [4][11] - Year-to-date performance shows significant gains across various metals, with small metals up by 49.02% and energy metals by 33.83% [11] Price Changes - Industrial metals prices showed mixed results, with copper prices increasing by 0.12% and aluminum decreasing by 0.08% [16] - Lithium prices surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate rising by 17.48% and industrial-grade lithium carbonate by 19.42% [16] - Precious metals saw a decline, with COMEX gold prices dropping by 2.21% [16] Key Company Valuations - Notable companies in the sector include Zijin Mining, with a current stock price of 21.29 CNY and a projected PE ratio of 27 for 2023 [20] - Shandong Gold's stock price is 31.26 CNY, with a projected PE ratio of 60 for 2023 [20] - Companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum are highlighted for their potential benefits from the ongoing market trends [20] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates a tightening supply-demand balance in the aluminum market, with domestic electrolytic aluminum production at 373.96 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year [52] - Copper supply remains relatively stable, with social inventory at 126,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 million tons [35] - The report suggests that the demand for copper will be supported by ongoing investments in electrical infrastructure and home appliance subsidies [4][35]