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国债期货周报-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-17 11:30

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Report [1] - Core view: Despite the mediocre macro - data in the off - season, the stock market remains strong, treasury bond futures continue to correct, and the curve turns steeper. The net long positions of private funds increased slightly on a weekly basis, while those of wealth management subsidiaries and foreign investors decreased significantly. Maintain the view that the overall trend in the second half of the year is expected to be volatile and bearish [4] Group 2: Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Market performance: Treasury bond futures contracts declined this week, and the curve steepened significantly. The market showed a differentiated pattern with increased volatility at the long - end and continued resilience at the short - end. Policy expectations and the game of the capital market dominated market sentiment [5][7] - Short - end market: Supported by the capital market, it fluctuated within a narrow range. The 2 - year contract (TS2509) had a small decline this week. The capital market was loose, with DR001/DR007 interest rates at a low level, and the central bank continued net investment to stabilize liquidity [7] - Long - end market: Affected by policy games, the volatility increased. The yield curve showed alternating "flattening - steepening" characteristics [7] Group 3: Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - There is relevant content about liquidity monitoring and curve tracking, but no specific details are provided in the given text [9] Group 4: Seat Analysis - Daily change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 1.41%; foreign investors increased by 1.66%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.94% - Weekly change in net long positions by institutional type: Private funds increased by 3.84%; foreign investors decreased by 24.11%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 27.72% [11]