国泰君安期货金银周报-20250817

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the London gold price dropped by -1.73%, and the London silver price fell by -1.46%. The gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.5 in the previous week to 88.4, the 10-year TIPS declined to 1.95%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.33% (2-year 3.75%), and the US dollar index reached 97.86. The released US PPI data was significantly higher than expected, contrasting with the slightly eased CPI data, highlighting the impact of import inflation caused by tariffs and reducing the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut. Overall, it's hard to predict the trend of gold and silver. Gold is expected to weaken in the short term, but the price around 3300 remains a good buying point [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - Overseas Spot-Futures Price Spread: - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 dropped to -46.43 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -45.4 dollars per ounce [11]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 narrowed to -0.033 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.14 dollars per ounce [14]. - Domestic Spot-Futures Price Spread: - Gold: This week, the domestic gold spot-futures price spread was -3.72 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - Silver: This week, the domestic silver spot-futures price spread was -16 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [21]. - Inter-Month Spread: - Gold: This week, the gold inter-month spread was 6.26 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter-month spread was 71 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [29]. - Delivery Cost of Long-Short Spread Arbitrage between Near and Far Months: - Gold: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 7.57 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 14.13 yuan per gram [32][33]. - Silver: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 94.29 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 161.93 yuan per kilogram [34][35]. - Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Spot Gold and Silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange: This week, for gold at the gold exchange, the deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the same was true for silver [36]. - Inventory and Position-to-Inventory Ratio: - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.05 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.64%. The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons [38][42]. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.06 million ounces to 507.55 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 37.5%. The domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 16.83 tons to 1158 tons [40][42]. - CFTC Non-Commercial Positions in Gold and Silver: This week, the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both slightly declined [44]. - ETF Positions: - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 6.27 tons [49]. - Silver: This week, the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 40.96 tons [51]. - Gold-Silver Ratio: This week, the gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.7 last week to 88.4 [53]. - COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates: This week, the 1M gold lease rate was -0.23%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 1.77% [55] Core Drivers of Gold - Gold and Real Interest Rates: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60]. - Inflation and Retail Sales Performance: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - Non-Farm Payroll Performance: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - Probability of Fed Interest Rate Cut: The table shows the probability of interest rate hikes or cuts in different regions and time points, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [76].