股指放量冲高，但经济边际走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock indices is "oscillation" [1][4] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the risks after the amplification of volatility. The macro - fundamentals deviate from the rising stock market. The "front - running" of the A - share market has gradually turned into a "deviation". With few relatively low - valued sectors in the A - share market and increasing retail capital inflows, there is a need to watch out for potential market bubbles. Currently, risks outweigh opportunities [2][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week View and Overview of Key Macro Events - Next - week View: The stock market is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the risks after the amplification of volatility. The macro - fundamentals deviate from the rising stock market, and the "front - running" of the A - share market has turned into a "deviation" [10] - This - week Key Events: - On August 11, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration solicited public opinions on the implementation regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law. Many listed companies planned to invest idle funds in the securities market [11][12] - On August 12, China and the US announced a 90 - day suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs. Multiple departments issued policies on consumer loan and service industry business loan interest subsidies [13][14][16] - On August 13, China's M1 growth rate in July reached 5.6%, and 188 billion yuan of special ultra - long - term treasury bond funds for equipment renewal was fully allocated [17][18] - On August 14, a new K - type visa was added for foreign young scientific and technological talents [19] - On August 15, most of China's economic data in July fell short of expectations. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report emphasized balanced development [20][22] 3.2 One - Week Market Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: From August 11 - 15, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 1.22%, with emerging markets (+1.49%) > frontier markets (+1.42%) > developed markets (+1.19%). Japan's stock market led the global rise with a 3.99% increase, while Saudi Arabia's stock market had the worst performance, falling 0.65% [23] - Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview: Chinese equity assets rose significantly. A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.1022 trillion yuan, a 405.6 - billion - yuan increase from last week. Most indices rose by over 1%, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.58%, while the micro - cap stock index fell 0.75% [26] - Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most global GICS primary industries rose. The leading industry was materials (+4.15%), and the underperforming industry was healthcare (-0.44%). In the Chinese market, materials led the rise (+3.53%), and healthcare led the decline (-0.72%) [29] - Weekly Overview of Chinese A - share Citic Primary Industries: Among Chinese A - share Citic primary industries, 22 rose (28 last week) and 8 fell (2 last week). The leading industry was comprehensive finance (+7.07%), and the industry with the largest decline was banking (-3.22%) [30] - Weekly Overview of Chinese A - share Styles: The growth style outperformed the value style, and the small - cap style was dominant [35] - Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past six months was presented [40][41] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - Broad - based Index Valuation: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various broad - based indices were provided, along with their eight - year percentile and changes since the beginning of the year [43] - Primary Industry Valuation: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various primary industries were provided, along with their eight - year percentile and changes since the beginning of the year [44] - Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 declined rapidly this week [45][50] - Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast for Broad - based Indices: The expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 in 2025 were adjusted downwards, while those in 2026 were adjusted upwards [51] 3.4 Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: The 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 98, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.19 [59] - Tracking of Trading - type Funds: The average daily northbound trading volume increased by 64 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 45.7 billion yuan [61] - Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs: The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 400 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 180 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 1.2 billion, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 1.6 billion [65][67] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - Supply Side: The coking plant operating rate rebounded [70] - Consumption Side: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $68 per barrel [78][87] - Inflation Observation: The prices of production materials rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [89][90]