固收周度点评：波动行情中，向个券相对价值寻收益-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp adjustment of the bond market this week is still a short - term emotional shock, and the pricing logic of assets has not changed much. The upward momentum of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate breaking through 1.75% will weaken marginally, but the downward space for interest rates is also limited. In the face of fluctuations, investors should choose trading strategies carefully according to their liability - side stability and safety cushion [2][17][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review: Risk Assets Continuously Suppress, Curve Bear - Steepens - The Shanghai Composite Index strongly broke through the key points of 3674 and 3700, boosting market risk appetite and leading to a significant adjustment in the bond market. Economic data in July, single - month negative credit growth, and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations failed to drive the bullish power of the bond market. By Friday, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds reached 1.7490% and 1.9980% respectively, approaching key levels [1][8]. - From Monday to Friday, influenced by factors such as the performance of risk assets, policy expectations, and economic data, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds fluctuated. Compared with August 8th, by August 15th, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds increased by 1.6BP, 4.9BP, 5.7BP, and 8.7BP respectively [8][9][10]. 3.2 Before the Key Resistance Level, the "Catalysts" and "Risk Points" of the Bond Market Catalysts - The limited bullish power in the bond market after the release of social financing and economic data this week may be due to the significant decline in bill rates at the end of June, which has already been expected by the market, rather than the unimportance of fundamental factors [2][17]. - The central bank closely monitors and precisely regulates the money market. Although there was a continuous net withdrawal from Monday to Thursday, the money market rate remained stable. On Friday, a 5000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase was implemented in time, and the central bank's open - market operations turned to net injection [17]. - The allocation demand is gradually increasing. Since August is the "sales rush" period before the reduction of insurance's预定 interest rate, the subsequent insurance purchase strength is expected to further increase [17]. Risk Points - There is a risk of negative feedback from bond - fund redemptions. As of August 17th, the scale of stock - funds and bond - funds in August increased by 145.7 billion yuan and 50.3 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month, and it is the second consecutive month that the growth rate of stock - fund scale is greater than that of bond - funds [3][19]. - The central bank's monetary policy focuses on multiple goals and may tolerate fluctuations in the money market and the bond market caused by the temporary amplification of supply - demand frictions at individual times [4][28]. - Compared with the stock - bond seesaw effect after the "924" package of policies last year, the upward range of interest rates in this round is not large. Since the "anti - involution" market in early July, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds have increased by 11BP and 15BP respectively [4][28]. 3.3 Strategy Thinking: Ultra - Long Bonds Will See Intensive Issuance, Focus on the Switch of Individual Bond Relative Values - In the unstable bond - market situation, investors are advised to focus on bonds with both liquidity and relative value and conduct refined bond selection. They can seize the trading opportunities brought by the intensive issuance of ultra - long bonds from August to September [5][33]. - Usually, in the early stage of the issuance and subsequent re - issuance of new bonds, the spread between new and old bonds will widen. Next Friday, the 30 - year "25 Ultra - Long Special Treasury Bond 06" will be issued for the first time [5][33]. - Based on the issuance of 11 30 - year Treasury bonds since 2021, the spread between new and old bonds will reach its peak 2 - 9 trading days after the listing of the first - issued bond (except for 250002), with the spread widening by 2.1 - 9.5BP compared with the issuance start date and 1.6 - 15.8BP compared with the listing date (except for 2500005 which is narrowing). For the first issuance and the first two re - issuances, the spreads of active bonds, sub - active bonds, and new bonds compared with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate usually compress within the listing day and the following three trading days [5][34]. - For trading desks that can short, they can short old bonds before issuance, buy new bonds in the primary market, and then sell new bonds and buy back old bonds after the spread between new and old bonds widens. For allocation desks that cannot short, they can sell old bonds in their current holdings before issuance, buy new bonds in the primary market, and decide whether to sell and buy back old bonds after the new bonds are listed. In addition, lending bonds can further increase returns [38].