铅产业链周度报告-20250817

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead supply is under pressure, and the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved. The price is expected to fluctuate. The supply side is the core logic, with strong price support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for cash-and-carry arbitrage in Shanghai lead [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, and Position - Price and Spread: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,780 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of -0.42%. The LME lead 3-month contract decreased by 1.70%. The LME lead (0 - 3) spot premium decreased by 11.95 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai 1 lead spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. The spread between regenerated lead and primary lead remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The contango structure of Shanghai lead has narrowed [9]. - Inventory: From August 7th to August 15th, domestic lead inventory increased slightly from 71,100 tons to 71,700 tons. The inventory of Shanghai lead 09 contract is relatively high, and the spot discount has narrowed. The LME lead inventory decreased by 7,275 tons, and the注销仓单 ratio decreased by 3.79% [8][9]. - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 32,601 lots, an increase of 1,593 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,207 lots, a decrease of 7,916 lots. The trading volume of the LME 3-month lead contract was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,522 lots. The position was 142,000 lots, an increase of 6,194 lots [9]. Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Regenerated Lead - Lead Concentrate: The weekly average of the 60% lead concentrate spot import TC was -80 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of imported lead concentrate was -1,652 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the profit was -2,500 yuan/ton [8][9]. - Primary Lead: The production of primary lead is under pressure. Although the smelting enterprises in Henan have resumed normal production after maintenance, the smelting maintenance in Liaoning, Hunan, Jiangxi and other places has affected part of the output. The weekly average of the primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate has decreased [8]. - Regenerated Lead: The regenerated lead has been in a loss state for a long time, with a loss of about 423 yuan/ton, and the loss has widened compared to the previous week. The regenerated lead enterprises in Guizhou, Jiangsu, Ningxia and other places have carried out maintenance, affecting part of the output. The operating rate of regenerated lead is at a historical low [5][8]. - Import and Export: The refined lead net import volume, lead ingot import volume, and lead ingot export volume are provided in the report, and the lead spot import profit and loss has changed [47]. Lead Demand: Lead-Acid Batteries and End-Users - Lead-Acid Batteries: The current consumption of lead-acid batteries is average, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises is stable. Large battery factories have started to reduce prices to pressure inventory on dealers. However, the market expects the consumption to pick up after September, and the operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises may increase, and they will increase raw material inventory on dips [8]. - End-Users: The actual lead consumption, automobile production, and motorcycle production data are provided in the report, reflecting the end-user demand situation [52].