锌产业链周度报告-20250817

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: August 17, 2025 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Ji Xianfei (Chief Analyst/Co - Administrative Head), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The zinc smelting production enthusiasm is high, and the start - up rate remains at a high level, with a neutral strength analysis [2]. - The galvanizing start - up rate has marginally increased [3]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The supply is increasing while the demand is in a weak off - season pattern. In the short term, zinc prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. During the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand in the off - season, SHFE zinc may be relatively weaker, and short - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Price Performance: The previous week's closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 22,505 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.04%. The night - session closing price was 22,390 yuan, with a decline of 0.51%. The previous week's closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,796.5 dollars, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 83,222 lots, an increase of 1,794 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 76,347 lots, a decrease of 18,548 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 10,973 lots, an increase of 2,571 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 190,988 lots, a decrease of 2,970 lots [6]. - Basis Changes: LME zinc's cash - to - 3 - month spread decreased by 4.99 dollars to - 5.22 dollars. The bonded area zinc premium increased by 140 dollars to 140 dollars. The Shanghai 0 zinc spot premium decreased by 10 yuan to - 50 yuan [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - Inventory: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [8]. - Profit: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [10][11]. - Start - up Rate: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical median level. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is still at a historical high level. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, both at relatively low historical levels [12][13]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - Spot: The spot premium has slightly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][22]. - Spread: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the backwardation [24]. - Inventory: The inventory has shown a stable and rising trend at a low level, and the inventory - to - open - interest ratio has continued to decline. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term slight decrease and at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period. The bonded area inventory is stable, and the global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [30][36][39]. - Futures: The domestic open interest is at a historical median level [40]. 3.4 Supply - Zinc Concentrate: Zinc concentrate imports have declined. Domestic zinc ore production is at a historical median level. The increase rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and smelter raw material inventories are abundant and at a historical high level [43][44]. - Refined Zinc: Smelting output has marginally recovered. Smelter finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period. Zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly decreased, mostly at medium - to - low levels compared to the same period [54][57]. - The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The prices of European natural gas, carbon emissions, and electricity are presented in the report, and the profitability of overseas zinc smelters is also analyzed [70 - 74].