镍：基本面逻辑窄幅震荡，警惕消息面风险不锈钢：宏观预期与现实博弈，钢价震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - Inventory Changes: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - Market News: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Trends: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - Supply - Demand Fundamentals: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - Trading Strategies: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Movements: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - Outlook: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Previous Week's Performance: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - Driving Factors: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].