国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term strategy: Short - term observation, hold long - short spreads. The global crude oil supply pattern is undergoing significant adjustments, and demand shows obvious regional and structural differences. Brent and WTI may challenge $80/barrel in the second half of the year, and SC may challenge 580 yuan/barrel. In the medium - to - long term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices [6]. - Logic: In the third quarter, the market is bullish, with the rhythm possibly adjusted to the second half of the quarter, mainly due to OPEC+ production increase falling short of expectations, a decline in U.S. shale oil production, and a relatively low global inventory center. Overseas macro - market risk appetite has deteriorated, and potential sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a decline in exports. In the medium - to - long term, there is a bearish outlook due to long - term oversupply pressure from production increases by OPEC+ and other countries [6]. - Strategies: Hold long positions in the short term; in the long term, short at high prices and trend short. Pay attention to long - short spreads (buy SC10, sell 11 and 12), and remain on the sidelines for cross - variety trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - OPEC+ production increase in July fell short of expectations. Eight OPEC+ member countries plan to fully lift the "voluntary production cuts" in September, releasing 547,000 barrels per day of sour crude oil supply. Saudi Arabia has increased exports to the Asia - Pacific region. Non - OPEC+ producers show a differentiated trend: U.S. shale oil production is expected to decrease by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025, while emerging producers such as Guyana and Brazil are seeing rising production. Russia has successfully transferred its supply through the Asian market, and Venezuela has resumed exports [6][8][9]. - Supply situation by country: Iraq's production is limited; the UAE's production and exports are high, with planned maintenance in October; Saudi Arabia has raised its official selling prices for Asia in September; Nigeria's exports are increasing; Angola's exports are under pressure; Russia's exports to India have decreased, but exports to China have increased; Norway's medium - sour crude oil prices have fallen [8]. 3.2 Demand - Global crude oil demand shows obvious regional and structural differences. China is increasing its strategic reserve construction, with land - based crude oil inventories increasing at a daily rate of 700,000 barrels from March to July, accounting for 75% of the global inventory increase during the same period. The U.S. refineries are operating at high loads, but gasoline demand growth is restricted. The European market is facing an oversupply of jet fuel. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil under U.S. pressure [6][11]. - Demand situation by country: In China, gasoline demand has decreased by 8.1% year - on - year, diesel demand has increased by 1.9% year - on - year, and aviation fuel demand has increased by 11.1% year - on - year. India has reduced its imports of Russian oil and turned to U.S. and Middle Eastern crude oil, resulting in a decline in refinery processing volume in June [11]. 3.3 Macro - Pay attention to the Russia - U.S. negotiations and the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. Overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing has rebounded [13][19][24]. 3.4 Price, Spread and Position - North American basis has rebounded slightly. The monthly spread has fallen to a low level. SC is stronger than the external market, and the monthly spread has weakened. Net long positions have declined [77][78][81].