国泰君安期货研究周报：农产品-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, after the bearish news of supply recovery was concentrated in the second quarter, there are no effective bearish factors in the fundamentals. When the producing areas enter the production - reduction period with extremely low inventories, buying palm oil at low levels will be the main theme in the second half of the year. Further price increases depend on maintaining India's import profit, the support of US soybean oil at 52 cents/pound, and the tightening of Argentine soybean oil supply and the failure of Indonesia's production recovery [5][8]. - For soybean oil, the current drivers are US soybean weather, the sustainability of soybean oil exports, and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. If palm oil fails to accumulate inventory in August and the soybean import gap persists due to Sino - US trade issues, there will be opportunities to go long on soybean oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread will show a weakening range - bound trend [7][8]. - For soybean meal, due to the bullish 8 - month USDA report, the futures price center is expected to move up. Future attention should be paid to variables such as US soybean production area weather, Sino - US economic and trade talks, and US soybean exports [17][22]. - For soybean No.1, the spot market is generally weak, but it may be driven by the rising price centers of soybean meal and soybean No.2 futures, with the price expected to rebound and fluctuate [22]. - For corn, the market shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The spot trading is light, and the futures market is temporarily weak, waiting for the new season's supply [40][46]. - For sugar, the international market is in a low - level consolidation phase, and the next step is to focus on the opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's production. The domestic market is in a consolidation period, with the Zhengzhou sugar futures following the trend of raw sugar and trading around the import rhythm [75][107]. - For cotton, the ICE cotton futures are in a range - bound trend. The domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and the 01 contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high [109][128]. - For hogs, the spot price oscillates, and the futures price shows a weak oscillation. The near - term futures are in a basis - narrowing market [130][131]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil - Last week, the MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish, and the palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% [4]. - This week, the high inventory level in Malaysia from April has been digested. Since June, Indonesia's price indicators have been resilient, and new upward momentum has emerged. The inventory in Malaysia in July did not exceed expectations, driving the price to a three - year high. The price space in the future depends on India's import profit, the support of US soybean oil, and the situation of Argentine soybean oil and Indonesia's production [5]. - China has new ship purchases, and there may be a callback opportunity for the 1 - 5 positive spread, which can be participated in around 200 [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Last week, the USDA report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [4]. - This week, the large number of soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak domestic situation. If the trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic soybean - palm oil spread closer to the international level. Future attention should be paid to the US soybean purchase situation and Sino - US trade issues [7]. Soybean Meal - Last week, US soybean prices rose due to increased export hopes to China and the bullish USDA report. Domestic soybean meal prices followed the rise, with the main m2601 contract rising 1.39% [16][17]. - The main influencing factors include the USDA report, trade war sentiment, and US soybean fundamentals. Next week, the futures price center is expected to move up [17][22]. Soybean No.1 - Last week, the domestic soybean No.1 price oscillated. The national reserve auction continued, the spot was stable, and the demand was weak. The futures price mainly followed the fluctuations of the soybean market. The main a2511 contract fell 0.83% [17][21]. - Next week, it may be driven by the rising price centers of soybean meal and soybean No.2 futures, with the price expected to rebound and fluctuate [22]. Corn - In the spot market last week, the price was basically stable. In the futures market, the price fell due to the lack of new drivers, weak market sentiment, and low new - season planting costs [40][41]. - In the future, CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices were stable, corn starch inventory increased, and the futures market is expected to remain weak with a near - term strength and long - term weakness pattern [42][46]. Sugar - In the international market this week, the New York raw sugar price rose, and the net long position of funds increased significantly. The 24/25 crushing season is expected to have a supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see production increase [73]. - In the domestic market, the spot price rose, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures price also increased. The 24/25 season is expected to see continuous production increase and cost reduction, and the 25/26 season may see a decline in the sugar yield in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [74][75]. - The international market is expected to be in a low - level consolidation phase, and the domestic market is in a consolidation period [107]. Cotton - Last week, ICE cotton rose slightly due to the bullish USDA monthly supply - demand report, but fell in the second half of the week due to concerns about export prospects. Domestic cotton futures rose, with the 01 contract rising more significantly [109]. - The USDA report significantly lowered the US cotton planting area in the 25/26 season, resulting in a decrease in production and ending inventory. The global cotton balance sheet also had corresponding adjustments [114][115]. - ICE cotton is expected to remain range - bound, and domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with the 01 contract needing new drivers to break through the previous high [128]. Hogs - This week, the spot price of hogs oscillated. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand increased due to low prices. The average slaughter weight decreased slightly [130]. - The futures price showed a weak oscillation, and the basis of the LH2509 contract changed from negative to positive [131].