铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告-20250817

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - For aluminum, the price continues to converge with low volatility. The current inventory accumulation before the traditional peak season may not be a significant negative factor for prices. The core strategy is to wait for buying opportunities on price pullbacks, and there may be opportunities to re - enter long positions on volatility expansion in the future [3][5]. - For alumina, although the price rose sharply due to the news from Shanxi mines this week, the actual impact is limited. The price may reach a certain equilibrium at the 3000 - 3200 platform level in the short term, and the supply side still has multiple uncertainties [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Data - Market Review: Alumina's main contract closed at 3205 with a weekly increase of 0.72%, and the night - session closed at 3225 with an increase of 0.62%. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20770 with a weekly increase of 0.34%, and the night - session closed at 20660 with a decrease of 0.53%. LME Aluminum closed at 2603 with a decrease of 0.46%, and COMEX Aluminum closed at 2548.25 with an increase of 0.13% [7]. - Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes: The trading volume and open interest of the alumina main contract increased significantly, while the open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased slightly and the trading volume increased slightly [7]. - Inventory Changes: The inventory of alumina and aluminum increased this week. For example, the alumina warehouse receipt inventory increased by 39589, and the aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 571,000 tons [7]. - Futures - Spot Price Difference Changes: The A00 spot price premium strengthened, while the alumina spot price premium weakened. The Shanghai Aluminum spot price premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 51 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton [7][11]. - Inter - month Spread Changes: The near - month spread of Shanghai Aluminum remained stable [12]. - Domestic - Foreign Spread Changes: The import losses of electrolytic aluminum and Shanghai Aluminum 3M decreased, indicating a narrowing of the domestic - foreign spread [7]. - Fundamental Data and Information: Alumina profit decreased slightly to 414.5 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum profit increased to 3971.96 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased to 1912 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Trading Side - Term Spread: This week, the A00 spot price premium strengthened, and the alumina spot price premium weakened. For example, the SMM A00 aluminum average spot price premium changed from - 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 51 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton [11]. - Inter - month Spread: The near - month spread of Shanghai Aluminum remained stable [12]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased slightly and the trading volume increased slightly, while the open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly [14]. - Open Interest - Inventory Ratio: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai Aluminum decreased, and the open interest - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and was at a historically low level [19]. 3. Inventory - Bauxite: As of August 15, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 800,000 tons week - on - week. In July, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises increased. The port shipments and arrivals of bauxite decreased slightly in the week ending August 8 [25][30][36]. - Alumina: The total national inventory of alumina continued to increase, with an increase of 55,000 tons week - on - week. As of August 14, the national alumina inventory was 3.375 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from the previous week [45][51]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of August 14, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 22,000 tons to 571,000 tons [52]. - Aluminum Rod: This week, the spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the shipments decreased [58]. - Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil: As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained stable, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly [60]. 4. Production - Bauxite: In July, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight increase in SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. The bauxite production in different provinces showed different trends [65][69]. - Alumina: The capacity utilization rate of alumina remained stable. As of August 15, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 95.7 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons week - on - week. The production of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina was 1.849 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [73]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. As of August 14, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 847,900 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week. The proportion of aluminum water decreased seasonally [77]. - Downstream Processing: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods decreased, the production of aluminum rods increased by a small amount, and the production of aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly. The operating rate of downstream leading enterprises increased slightly [80][83]. 5. Profit - Alumina: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit at 415.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [92]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and trade policy uncertainties affected market expectations [101]. - Downstream Processing: The processing fee of aluminum rods remained unchanged, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [102]. 6. Consumption - Import Profit and Loss: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum increased [110]. - Export: In July 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly by 52,000 tons month - on - month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed products showed differentiation [112][114]. - Absolute Consumption Volume: The commercial housing transaction area decreased, and the automobile production decreased month - on - month [119].