能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the pricing role of the demand side is significant, and paper prices continue to decline. The main factors affecting the market price trend are paper mills' price adjustments, production line resumptions, weak downstream demand, and limited cost - side support. Looking ahead, market supply is expected to be stable next week, but demand is unlikely to see obvious support, and there may be a possibility of further price cuts [54][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - This Thursday, the inventory days of domestic offset paper decreased by 0.43% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week. Some paper mills' inventories continued to decline, but overall inventory consumption slowed due to poor social order demand [6]. - This week, the operating load rate of domestic offset paper was 48.68%, a decrease of 0.50 percentage points compared with last week, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.45 percentage points week - on - week. Poor order intake led to a decline in production enthusiasm [6]. - In August, the FOB price of Brazilian eucalyptus hardwood pulp "Bird" increased by $20/ton, with a net FOB price of $510/ton [6]. - In June 2025, Canada exported 15.21 tons of softwood pulp to China, a month - on - month increase of 23.22% and a year - on - year increase of 47.83%; 2.54 tons of hardwood pulp, a month - on - month increase of 463.43% and a year - on - year increase of 31.32%; 3.82 tons of chemi - mechanical pulp, a month - on - month decrease of 24.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.07% [6]. Market Trends - As of August 15, the average price of 70g high - white offset paper was 4950 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day, and 43.75 yuan/ton lower than last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various 70g offset paper products in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased week - on - week. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits of offset paper also decreased [10]. Supply and Demand Data - Industry Capacity: In 2024, the domestic offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [19]. - Weekly Data: This week, the domestic offset paper industry output was 163,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.7%; the sales volume was 165,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 342,100 tons [22][30]. - Imports and Exports: In June, the domestic offset paper import volume was about 15,000 tons, and the export volume was about 66,000 tons [38]. - Inventory: The social inventory pressure of offset paper changed little, while the enterprise inventory pressure increased [44]. - Terminal Consumption: In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [50]. Market Judgment - Supply: This week, the domestic offset paper industry output was 163,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.7%. In June, the import volume was about 15,000 tons, maintaining a low level [55]. - Demand: This week, the domestic offset paper sales volume was 165,000 tons. In June, the export volume was about 66,000 tons. Social orders are weak, and the enthusiasm for raw paper procurement is limited [55]. - Price: This week, the average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white offset paper was 4,974 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%, and the decline rate widened by 0.32 percentage points; the average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white offset paper was 4,605 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.50%, and the decline rate widened by 0.11 percentage points [55]. - Valuation: Based on the current pulp price, the pre - tax gross profit of offset paper is about - 113 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit is about - 273 yuan/ton. The off - season of demand compresses paper prices, and pulp prices are stable, further compressing paper enterprises' profits [55]. - Strategy: The futures variety has not been launched yet [55].