工业硅：关注上游工厂的复产节奏，多晶硅：下周事件扰动增多，以逢低布多为主

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large number of upstream factories resume production, the disk trend follows coking coal futures, but the fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high positions and take profits at low positions in the short - term, and not hold positions for a long time. The expected disk range next week is 8500 - 9100 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct selling hedging [6][8]. - For polysilicon, with more event disturbances next week, the idea is mainly to go long on dips. The expected disk range next week is 50000 - 60000 yuan/ton. After digesting the negative impact of the second batch of registered brands this week, it is recommended to take profits on the inter - period positive spread of PS2511 and PS2512 opportunistically, and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea. Polysilicon downstream wafer factories are recommended to conduct buying hedging [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The disk showed a volatile trend, and the spot price increased. It closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8700 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 150), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was reported at 9000 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100) [2]. - Polysilicon: The disk had a wide - range shock and was generally strong. It closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday. There was partial spot trading in the downstream, but the transaction price did not show obvious improvement [2]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The start - up in the southwest region continued to rise, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production but at a slow pace. The inventory of futures warrants decreased compared with last week, with a warrant inventory increase of 0.1 million tons this week. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon increased, and the weekly production of organic silicon also increased. The aluminum alloy had rigid demand orders, and the export market was inactive [4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The polysilicon production schedule in August is expected to reach 130,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased [4]. - Demand side: After a brief repair of wafer profits, the output increased. The short - term wafer inventory was relatively low, and some wafer factories increased production. The price increase of some wafers and battery cells was accepted, but there was no information on the price increase and transaction of components [5]. Market Data Charts - The report provides a series of charts, including the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and warehouse transaction prices of industrial silicon, domestic industrial silicon social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, polysilicon spot price, production and year - on - year change, industry start - up rate, import and export volume, industry profit calculation, single - crystal wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity, domestic DMC average price trend, industry monthly start - up rate, production and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume of primary - form polysiloxane, industry profit calculation, price seasonality of recycled aluminum ADC12, industry monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality [9][11][12][15][18][22][23][24][27]