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美国通胀反弹限制降息空间,黄金收跌
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-17 12:13

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold dropped 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.32%, inflation expectation was 2.38%, and the real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, the S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, the RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed [2] - After the US officially announced no additional tariffs on gold, the price difference between London gold and New York gold quickly converged, leading to a weakening of global gold prices. The market returned to trading based on fundamental data. US inflation has room to continue rising, and the Fed is in a dilemma on monetary policy. The current data supports a 25bp interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3] - Geopolitical factors did not bring incremental positive news, and the Trump-Putin talks did not reach an agreement but did not deteriorate either [4] - In the short term, the gold price remains in a range-bound state, with resistance formed around $3,400. Short-term gold prices need to be cautious about correction risks [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The basis of the domestic market (spot - futures) was -2.71 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 1.82 yuan or -40.2%. The price difference between domestic and foreign futures (domestic - foreign) was -5.09 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 5.70 yuan or -52.8%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 36,345 kilograms, a week-on-week increase of 300 kilograms or 0.8%. The COMEX gold inventory was 38,636,332 ounces, a week-on-week increase of 51,345 ounces or 0.13%. The SPDR ETF's gold holding was 965.36 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.72 tons or 0.60%. The CFTC's net long position in gold speculation was 154,226 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 7,585 contracts or -4.7% [12] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and the US Treasury yield was 4.32%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, and the VIX index dropped to 15. The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.34%. Oil prices fell 0.1%, and US inflation expectation was 2.38% [16][19] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets all rose, with the S&P 500 rising 0.94%. Most developing country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.7%. The real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%, and the gold price fell 1.8%. The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index fell. US and German bonds rose, with a US - German yield spread of 1.53%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.69%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.57%. The euro appreciated 0.52%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.75%, the yen appreciated 0.37%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.19%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [24][25][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The net long position in gold speculation dropped to 154,000 contracts, and the SPDR Gold ETF's holding rebounded to 965 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed. Gold and silver prices corrected, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 87.8 [34][36] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US July new home starts and building permits - Wednesday: China's August LPR - Thursday: France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US August manufacturing PMI; Fed monetary policy minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]