经济结构向好优化，政策引导稳中有进

Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].