螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20250817

Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] Report Date - August 17, 2025 [2] Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei [2] - Investment Consultation Number: Z0021184 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Market sentiment has eased, and steel prices are oscillating [3] Logic Summary Market Sentiment - The coking coal exchange has imposed position limits again, and the Economic Daily has published an article stating that anti-involution will not drive up general prices, leading to a缓和 in market sentiment [5] Macroeconomic Factors - Overseas: US PPI has soared by 3.3% year-on-year, with the month-on-month increase reaching a two-year high, indicating increased producer pressure. The expectation of an unexpected interest rate cut in September has been revised [5][9] - Domestic: The anti-involution trading has cooled off. The Politburo meeting on July 30 removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1. The statement "promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity" has been changed to "promote capacity management in key industries", emphasizing the optimization of market competition order and the regulation of corporate disorderly competition in accordance with laws and regulations [5][8] Black Industry Chain - Steel demand remains stable during the off-season, with decent profits and low inventories. The daily consumption of scrap steel has rebounded, while the decline in hot metal production is slow, resulting in an ineffective negative feedback transmission [5][11] Section Summaries Rebar Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3320 (-20) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3188 (-25) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 132 (+5) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -81 (-8) yuan/ton [14] - Demand: New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. Additionally, demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [17][20][21] - Inventory and Production: High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventories. The production of long and short process rebar and their corresponding inventories are also presented [23][24] - Production Profit: The expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 226 (-63) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 207 (-42) yuan/ton. The valley electricity profit of East China rebar was 126 (-54) yuan/ton [29][33] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3460 (+10) yuan/ton, and the main futures price was 3439 (+11) yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 21 (-1) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was 7 (+8) yuan/ton [35] - Demand: Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, closing the export window [36][39][40] - Inventory and Production: Speculative demand has declined, leading to a faster accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventories. Production has also decreased [42][44] - Production Profit: Similar to rebar, the expected revision of anti-involution policies has led to a reduction in steel mill profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 200 (-31) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 308 (-6) yuan/ton [46][48] Variety Spread Structure - Opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread are worth noting [49] Variety Regional Difference - The regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil are presented [58][59][60] Cold Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate are provided [62][63]