能源化工尿素周度报告-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the urea market will maintain a range - bound pattern. The willingness to short at the fundamental valuation support level is weak due to anti - involution policies and policy uncertainties. In the long - term, with clearer policies, it is recommended to short at high prices under the background of high fundamental pressure [2]. - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, and the daily output remains high. The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state [2][29][37]. - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The domestic demand is weak, with the agricultural demand decreasing and the industrial demand being sluggish [2][43]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (domestic and international), including the basis of different enterprises, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, and the spot prices of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20]. Domestic Supply Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 tons, with many new projects put into production or planned [24]. Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise name, annual capacity, raw materials, model, parking and starting dates, and reasons [28]. Output - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, but the daily output remains high. The charts show the historical trends of China's daily urea output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [29][30]. Cost - The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides a cost calculation table for fixed - bed factories in the Shanxi region [32]. Profit - The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state, and the charts show the historical trends of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different cost - based urea [37][38]. Net Import (Export) - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The table shows the monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 - 2025 [43]. Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, and the demand for urea in corn has increased due to high - standard farmland construction [49][52]. Industrial Demand - Compound Fertilizer: The charts show the historical trends of the production cost, factory inventory, production gross profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [56][57][58]. - Melamine: The charts show the historical trends of the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [60][61]. - Real Estate: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The charts show the export volume of wood products and the cumulative data of real estate completion and construction areas [62][63]. Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%. By August 14, 2025 (week 33), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 464,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.93% [67]. International Urea - The charts show the historical trends of international urea spot prices, including the FOB prices of large - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and China, and the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [20][71][72][73][74].