铁矿石周度观点-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term futures price of iron ore still has macro and micro support. Although the enthusiasm for chasing high prices of black commodities has declined, the macro - expectations reflected in other major asset sectors are not weak, and the active production of downstream steel mills supports the short - term price of iron ore [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Market Overview - The main 01 contract price of iron ore first rose and then fell this week, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 447,000 lots, an increase of 92,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 258,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 119,000 lots [7] - Imported iron ore spot prices rose slightly week - on - week, with high - grade Carajas fines having a relatively large price increase [12] Supply Side - Global iron ore shipments have been relatively stable recently. There are some differences in shipments between Australia and Brazil. Rio Tinto's shipments are continuously catching up with last year's progress. Among non - mainstream suppliers, shipments from India and Peru are relatively weak, and Ukraine had its first overseas shipment since November last year [5][21][27] - The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic iron ore mines has increased month - on - month with the recovery in North China [32] Demand Side - The production of hot metal and five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, showing a large increase compared with the same period last year, which supports the immediate demand for iron ore spot (also confirmed by port ore handling volume) [5][34] - Recently, the arrival volume of scrap steel has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the spot price of scrap steel is sticky. This week, it increased slightly month - on - month, while the cost of hot metal increased more. The price difference between scrap and hot metal continued to narrow [35] Inventory Side - The powder ore inventory has been rising continuously, and the destocking trend at ports has slowed down [38][40] Downstream Profit - Behind the high - level operation of steel mills' production, the positive profit of finished steel products is shrinking [42] Price Spread - The price differences between Carajas fines - PB fines and Tangshan iron concentrate - PB fines have both widened recently [45] - The 1 - 5 price spread of the iron ore futures contract has been relatively stable this week [47] - As the maturity date approaches, the basis of the 09 contract is gradually approaching par, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has also slightly shrunk month - on - month, basically the same as the basis amplitude in the same period last year [51]