棉花：期价突破前高仍需新的驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures are in a range - bound oscillation. The USDA's reduction of the 2025/26 US cotton planting area and production strengthens the support at 66 cents per pound, but the weak global cotton demand leads to poor US cotton export demand, and the upward momentum is insufficient without improvement in US cotton exports or more actual production cuts from major exporters [20]. - Domestic cotton futures rose again this week. The 01 - contract's increase was significantly greater than that of the 09 - contract, and the CF9 - 1 spread continued to widen. The CF509 contract is mainly about delivery logic, and the 01 - contract is affected by import quota policies and external market sentiment, but the expected high - yield of new crops limits the increase. The 01 - contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high, and Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - ICE Cotton Main - continuous: Opened at 66.55, reached a high of 68.50, a low of 66.55, and closed at 67.48, up 0.84 or 1.26%. The trading volume was 141,171 lots, an increase of 24,529 lots, and the open interest was 154,300 lots, a decrease of 5,436 lots [5]. - Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous: Opened at 13,645, reached a high of 14,235, a low of 13,615, and closed at 14,120, up 480 or 3.52%. The trading volume was 1,098,037 lots, an increase of 457,089 lots, and the open interest was 477,620 lots, an increase of 216,824 lots [5]. - Cotton Yarn Main - continuous: Opened at 19,580, reached a high of 20,280, a low of 19,550, and closed at 20,185, up 580 or 2.96%. The trading volume was 40,982 lots, an increase of 10,492 lots, and the open interest was 21,336 lots, an increase of 4,283 lots [5]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose slightly this week. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report on Tuesday was bullish, causing ICE cotton to rise as it unexpectedly cut the 2025/26 US cotton planting area, reducing production and ending stocks. However, concerns about US cotton export prospects led to a decline in the second half of the week, with only a slight weekly increase [6]. - USDA monthly supply - demand report: In the US cotton balance sheet, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was cut by 840,000 acres, production dropped from 14.6 million bales in July to 13.21 million bales, and exports were cut by 500,000 bales, resulting in ending stocks being cut by 1 million bales to 3.6 million bales. In the global cotton balance sheet, the 2024/25 ending stocks (2025/26 beginning stocks) were cut by 1.73 million bales, mainly in China (1.05 million bales) and Brazil (510,000 bales). The 2025/26 global cotton production was cut by 1.8 million bales, with the US down 1.39 million bales, Central Asia down 310,000 bales, and West Africa down 140,000 bales, while China was up 500,000 bales. Global cotton consumption was cut by 130,000 bales, with India down 500,000 bales, Bangladesh down 300,000 bales, Turkey down 200,000 bales, and Central Asia down 100,000 bales, while China was up 100,000 bales [7]. - US cotton weekly export sales data: As of the week ending August 7, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 54,900 tons, with Vietnam contracting 27,000 tons and Bangladesh 9,100 tons; 2026/27 contracts were 200 tons. The 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 32,300 tons, a 22% week - on - week decrease, with Vietnam shipping 7,900 tons and Pakistan 5,900 tons [8]. - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: The sowing progress is still slower than last year. As of August 8, the cotton planting area was 10.7 million hectares, a 3.2% year - on - year decrease. The total sales reached 7.4 million bales, and the Cotton Corporation of India's inventory was 2.6 million bales. The season's arrivals reached 30.49 million bales (170 kg per bale) [9]. - Brazil: Exports in July decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. Cotton production was slightly cut to 3.9348 million tons due to a slight cut in the yield forecast in Bahia. July raw cotton exports were 127,000 tons, slightly lower than June and a 24% year - on - year decrease, in line with seasonal patterns. Turkey was the main customer (19%), followed by Bangladesh (16%), Vietnam (14%), and Pakistan (13%) [9]. - Australia: Exports were strong in June. Cotton fields are in pre - sowing preparation. June raw cotton exports were 128,900 tons, higher than the previous month but a 9% year - on - year decrease. China was the largest buyer (23%), followed by India (20%) and Vietnam (18%). From August 2024 to June 2025, the cumulative exports in the first 11 months of the season were 966,500 tons, lower than last year. China accounted for 26%, Vietnam 24%, and India's share rose from 4% in 2023/24 to 13% [10][11]. - Pakistan: Import demand is moderate. The cotton plants are in good condition, and pests are under control. The expected cotton production is between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The cotton market supply is limited, and spinners' demand is stable, supporting prices. Many ginneries are over - sold, and the seed - cotton price has strengthened. The cotton import demand remains at a normal level, mainly for Brazilian cotton [11]. - Bangladesh: Cotton import demand may rise, and garment exports were strong in July. After the US tariff policy announcement, textile and garment orders increased. Many manufacturers are seeking to increase the use of US cotton for tariff exemptions. Cotton purchases have increased to meet downstream demand. In July, knitted and woven garment exports were $3.96 billion, a 42% increase from June and a 25% increase from the same period last year [12]. - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week ending August 15, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 73%, unchanged from last week and in August, with a July average of 73.25%; Vietnam's was 63%, unchanged from last week, with an August average of 63.17% and a July average of 64.25%; Pakistan's was 64%, unchanged from last week and in August, with a July average of 62% [12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot prices rose slightly and trading improved slightly. As of the week ending August 15, domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose slightly, and spot trading was better than last week, but spinners mainly maintained just - in - time purchases. The quality mismatch between Xinjiang and inland spot inventories was more obvious. The low - basis southern Xinjiang lint in Xinjiang warehouses continued to decrease, while there was relatively more southern Xinjiang lint in inland warehouses. Xinjiang warehouses were mainly quoting northern Xinjiang prices, with a small amount of low - basis spot available. The basis was generally stable [13]. - Cotton warehouse receipt situation: As of August 15, there were 7,829 registered No. 1 cotton warehouse receipts and 249 pending receipts, totaling 8,078 receipts, equivalent to 339,276 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 7,510 Xinjiang cottons (220 in northern Xinjiang, 407 in southern Xinjiang, and 6,883 in inland warehouses) and 319 local cottons [14]. - Downstream situation improved slightly. The pure - cotton yarn market trading improved, with downstream replenishment purchases increasing. Spinners' quotes rose slightly. In terms of varieties, air - jet spinning and regular varieties had mainly just - in - time transactions. Profits changed little, with inland spinners' C32S cash - flow losses at around 500 yuan per ton and Xinjiang spinners still having a small profit. Spinners' inventories decreased slightly. The startup rate changed little, and inland spinners continued to limit production. The demand improvement in the pure - cotton grey fabric market was not sustainable, and weavers' confidence was still low. Prices were quoted higher, and actual transactions were negotiated based on quantity. Weavers' overall orders did not improve significantly, the startup rate increased slightly, and inventories decreased slowly. There was no improvement in inquiries and samples, and real orders were still scarce. In the export market, some brand traceability orders were placed, and export orders increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, orders in the knitted fabric market increased limitedly, and home textile and woven orders were poor. Weavers mostly maintained a just - in - time purchase strategy, with a slight increase in purchases. The market confidence was generally low [15]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including those on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, spinners' cotton inventory, weavers' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises'棉纱 inventory, cotton - cloth enterprises' cotton - cloth inventory, yarn enterprises' startup rate, cotton - cloth enterprises' startup rate, pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [17][18][19]. 3.4 Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are expected to remain range - bound. The reduction of US cotton planting area and production strengthens the support, but the weak global demand restricts the upward momentum. - Domestic cotton futures are expected to oscillate. The 01 - contract needs new drivers to break through the previous high, and attention should be paid to the external cotton market and Xinjiang weather [20].