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能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-17 12:11
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View Glass - The medium - term adjustment may not be over, and the market still faces pressure. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations triggered a rebound, but factors such as weak basis, delivery, and high inventory have led to a market decline. The forward 01 contract has a large premium, causing short - term disturbances, but the market remains under pressure before the delivery pressure ends [2]. 纯碱 - The short - term trend is weak and volatile, and the downward pressure persists. The previous overcrowded short positions in the futures market led to a short - squeeze rally. The strengthening basis during the short - term decline is unfavorable for futures prices. The supply side is not actively reducing production, and the market is under pressure [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - As of August 14, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines in China (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass is 159,600 tons, unchanged from July 7th. The daily loss of float glass is 40,450 tons, and the weekly loss is 283,150 tons, both unchanged from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting capacity of cold - repaired lines is 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting capacity of ignited lines is 12,110 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting capacity of 8,630 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [10][11][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but there may be a certain - scale production cut in the fourth quarter if demand is poor in the third quarter [17][18]. Demand - The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease year - on - year. The deep - processing orders in the southern region have not improved significantly, and the deep - processing profit is still low. Attention should be paid to the phased restrictions on deep - processing operations in some northern regions [2]. Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 63.426 million heavy cases, a 2.55% increase from the previous period and a 5.94% decrease year - on - year. The inventory days are 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period. The overall sales rate in North China has increased, but the inventory has increased. In Central China, the downstream purchasing sentiment is weak, and the inventory has continued to rise [2]. Price and Profit - The market price has slightly declined this week, with a slower decline rate. The price in Shahe is around 1,140 - 1,180 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton), in Central China's Hubei region it is 1,040 - 1,140 yuan/ton (down 40 - 80 yuan/ton), and in East China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, some large manufacturers' prices are 1,240 - 1,280 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The spot market is weaker recently, the basis has slightly weakened, and the inter - month spread is weak. The profit from petroleum coke is about 87 yuan/ton, and the profits from natural gas and coal fuels are about - 171 and 92 yuan/ton respectively [30][33]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,100 - 1,150 and lower support at 1,000 - 1,030. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the price is oscillating strongly. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, and that of 3.2mm coated panels is 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous period [51][53]. Capacity and Inventory - Recently, supply has been reduced, trading has improved, and inventory has declined. There are 408 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 89,290 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week and a 16.71% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory days are about 25.32 days, a 5.98% decrease from the previous period, with a narrowing decline rate [54][55][59]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed operation, and the operating rate has increased. This week, the domestic soda ash production is 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate is 87.2%, up from 85.4% last week. Some plants are under maintenance or have reduced production loads, and some have plans for future maintenance [3][64][66]. Inventory - The inventory is about 1.894 million tons. The light soda ash inventory is 760,000 tons, an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 1.1338 million tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from the previous week [4][68]. Price and Profit - Market quotes have been lowered, and the reduction by traders is greater than that by manufacturers. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1,280 - 1,400 yuan/ton. The profit from the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 9 yuan/ton, and the profit from the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 34.4 yuan/ton [78][80][84]. Strategy - Single - side: Weak and volatile, with upper pressure at 1,300 - 1,330 and lower support at 1,180 - 1,200. - Inter - period: Buy 01 and sell 09. - Inter - variety: Short - term, buy soda ash and sell glass [6].