碳酸锂：供弱需强，价格走强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend for about a month due to supply disturbances and potential demand growth. If downstream demand strengthens in September, lithium prices are likely to continue rising [3]. - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range between 85,000 and 95,000 yuan per ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Price Trends - The prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2511 contract closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 9,940 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price rose 10,800 yuan/ton to 82,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The SMM spot-futures basis (2509 contract) rose 520 yuan/ton to -4,220 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader premium/discount quote was -310 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton week-on-week. The 2509 - 2511 contract spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: After Yichun Times stopped mining, the lithium carbonate price strengthened. There are concerns about long - term production halts in smelting enterprises after using up equity and inventory ores. In Qinghai, mining license renewals and potential over - production issues may lead to production uncertainties in the fourth quarter [2]. - Demand: In August, the downstream production schedule demand is expected to improve significantly. The production schedule of cathode materials shows an 8.8% month - on - month increase for iron - lithium and a 9.2% increase for ternary materials. This week, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 216,000 units, down 11.84% week - on - week but up 0.93% year - on - year, with the growth rate significantly narrowing [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with the inventory at 142,000 tons, down 162 tons week - on - week. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 23,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Trading Strategies - Outlook: Due to the time needed for maritime replenishment of ore exports, lithium prices will likely remain strong for about a month. If downstream demand strengthens in September, a supply - to - demand procurement concern will form, and lithium prices are expected to stay strong [3]. - Single - sided Trading: The futures main contract price is expected to range from 85,000 to 95,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Inter - period Trading: In the short term, due to supply shortages, a positive spread arbitrage is recommended. In the long term, with a negative long - term contract basis and an expected increase in warehouse receipts, a reverse spread arbitrage is suitable [5]. - Hedging: As prices are expected to rise, upstream enterprises are advised to set prices for sales and not to sell for hedging. Downstream enterprises are not advised to buy for hedging because the spot price is significantly lower than the futures price [5].