纯苯、苯乙烯周报-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is weak, and the downstream industry has a strong bottom - fishing sentiment. The market will mainly fluctuate. As it enters late August, the downstream enters the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, with an optimistic market sentiment and strong bottom - fishing willingness. However, the raw material inventory of styrene downstream has reached a medium - to - high level after nearly a month of restocking, so the motivation for continuous restocking during the peak season is insufficient. In the short term, the explicit inventory will be reduced, and the implicit inventory will gradually accumulate, stabilizing market volatility. The market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [3][106]. - In terms of absolute price valuation, based on a crude oil price of $65 per barrel, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. As Brent crude oil rapidly rises to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6,100 - 6,300 yuan/ton [3][106]. - Regarding EB processing fees, considering the high inventory of styrene at ports and the high raw material inventory of downstream, the reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3][106]. - The trading strategy is as follows: (1) Unilateral: mainly fluctuate in the short term and bearish in the medium term; (2) Inter - period: no strategy; (3) Inter - variety: compress EB profit [3][106]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from August to September is 60,000 tons. The overall new device production capacity is weak, and the production pressure is mainly concentrated in August and September, with an increase of 50,000 tons in August and 100,000 tons in September. The spot pressure of major pure benzene producers in August is gradually emerging [3][106]. - Imported pure benzene: The low import volume in August has led to a relatively low visible inventory at ports. The expected import volume in September is maintained at 4 - 4.3 million tons. After October, as overseas maintenance gradually ends, the overall import pressure is still expected to be large [3][106]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Demand - Styrene: There is less maintenance in August, and the devices are operating at a high level. From August to October, styrene will face the pressure of concentrated new device production, with an average monthly increase of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The high - supply pressure has not ended [3][106]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device of Hengyi in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be put into production from August to September. Recently, caprolactam factories have increased their production loads again. However, both CPL and PA6 finished product inventories are at high levels, and factories are actively restocking for the peak season. Raw material inventories of factories in Shandong and South China regions remain at high levels [3][106]. - Phenol: New devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical (400,000 tons) and Jilin Petrochemical (200,000 tons) were put into production successively in July and August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. Production remains at a high level [3][106]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and a new device of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian) has been put into production. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. Aniline production is approaching the bottleneck, and the downstream MDI is continuously increasing its load. Leading enterprises still have room for restocking in the short term, which can absorb the incremental production capacity of pure benzene [3][106]. - 3S hard rubber downstream of styrene: There is a strength - to - weakness conversion between EPS/PS and ABS. ABS, which previously maintained a high operating rate, has recently faced continuous high pressure on raw material and finished product inventories, and leading enterprises have started maintenance, resulting in a decline in the overall operating rate. EPS and PS, which previously had a low operating rate, have started to reduce their finished product inventories, and their operating rates are gradually emerging from the off - season [3][106]. 3.3 Pure Benzene Futures Contract - Contract rules: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the quotation unit is yuan/ton, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, the contract months are from January to December, and the trading hours are from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm from Monday to Friday, as well as other trading hours specified by the exchange [5]. - Margin and price limit: The initial trading margin standard for pure benzene futures contracts is 8%, the price limit is ±7%, and the price limit on the listing day is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5,900 yuan/ton [6]. - Delivery system: The delivery quality standard follows the national standard 545, and the delivery system includes one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and delivery against physicals. It combines the factory warehouse and warehouse systems, with factory warehouse delivery as the main method and warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualification is the hazardous chemicals qualification, and group - based delivery is adopted [7]. 3.4 Pure Benzene Industry Chain Production Capacity - In the second half of 2025, the downstream production capacity of pure benzene will gradually be put into operation. From August to September, there will be new production capacity in pure benzene, styrene, caprolactam, etc. [29]. - From 2026 to 2027, styrene production capacity will still increase significantly, with multiple new devices being put into operation [30]. 3.5 Pure Benzene Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the market declined mainly due to pre - Spring Festival over - stocking and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply will continue to increase, but the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The expected apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [33]. - The profit of aromatics shows an obvious seesaw effect. Attention should be paid to PX - BZ arbitrage [34]. 3.6 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene - Styrene: In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, it has a situation of high inventory, high profit, and high production. The high - growth period of the home appliance industry has ended, and the transmission path is complex [80][82][91]. - ABS: Production capacity continues to expand, and the operating rate, inventory, production, and profit situations have changed [93][94]. - PS: The operating rate, production, profit, and inventory of PS have shown certain trends [95][96][99]. - EPS: The operating rate, production, inventory, and profit of EPS have also changed [100][102][105].