烧碱：偏多对待，PVC：趋势偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for caustic soda is bullish, while for PVC it is bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Caustic Soda: The current core driver of the caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. With the increasing rigid demand and inventory - building demand from alumina, especially the expected 3.6 million - ton alumina capacity to be put into production in Guangxi by the end of this year, the supply of caustic soda in Guangxi is tight. The export support is still strong, and the downstream peak - season restocking is likely to drive the spot price upwards. Although the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC may limit the overall industry profit expansion, the overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude [5] - PVC: In 2025, the high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit the export to India, and the market will continue to short PVC profits. The overall trend is bearish [7] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - Caustic Soda: The supply side shows that the average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The demand side is strong, with alumina having high production willingness and strong demand for caustic soda. The export support is also strong. The overall view is to maintain a bullish attitude, with specific strategies including holding long positions in contracts 10 and 11, conducting positive spreads in 10 - 1 and 11 - 1, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [5] - PVC: The high - production situation is difficult to change in the short term, and there will be new capacity put into production in the future. The export market competition pressure increases, and the domestic demand related to real estate is weak. The anti - dumping tax from India will limit exports. The overall trend is bearish, with strategies including shorting on rallies, not participating in inter - period spreads, and going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [7] 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of the cheapest deliverable caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,562 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 09 changes little, and the 10 - 1 month spread is strong. The export market still has support, with the cumulative export from January to June 2025 reaching 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%. The regional arbitrage space is limited, but attention should be paid to the continuous expansion of the flake caustic - liquid caustic spread. The 50% - 32% caustic soda spread is lower than the evaporation cost, which is bearish for caustic soda [10][16][22] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - The market structure shows a decline in production and inventory, with a strong structure. The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 84.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% and a year - on - year increase of 18.61%. Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from August to September. The actual capacity expansion of caustic soda in 2025 will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2%. The cost side of caustic soda changes greatly, and the recent rebound of liquid chlorine leads to a good overall profit situation [39][40][42] 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina shows an increase in production, inventory, and stable profits. The key in the second half of the year is whether the alumina production can drive a new round of demand expansion. The pulp industry has continuous capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season. The finished paper industry has a low year - on - year start - up rate. The viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, water treatment, and ternary precursor industries all have stable starts [79][86][96] 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The PVC basis fluctuates strongly, and the 9 - 1 month spread fluctuates weakly [109] 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - The PVC start - up rate increases month - on - month, with great supply pressure. There will be seasonal maintenance in the northwest from August to September 2025, and there is still a lot of new capacity to be put into production. The northwest integrated device has a good profit, and the profit of caustic soda should be particularly concerned in 2025. PVC production enterprises are destocking, while social inventory is accumulating. The real - estate terminal demand has not significantly recovered, and the start - up rates of PVC downstream pipes, profiles, and films are generally weak year - on - year. The PVC export is expected to weaken, and a large amount of risk - free arbitrage may lead to a large increase in warehouse receipts in the later stage [113][115][123]