聚烯烃：趋势仍有压力，但低位追空要谨慎

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend of polyolefins is still under pressure, but short - selling at low levels requires caution. For polypropylene, the trend is weak, with potential supply increases and cost uncertainties. For polyethylene, it is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [1][6][7][10]. - The core driver is the negative feedback in the market driven by the collapse of the cost side. Although the trend is weak, short - selling at low levels should be done with caution in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 View Summary 3.1.1 Polypropylene - This week, China's polypropylene production was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase from last week and a 19.21% increase from the same period last year. Next week, the average capacity utilization rate is expected to be around 77.8% [6]. - The demand for polypropylene products is expected to rise with the approaching peak season. However, the current cost side is weak, the demand side lacks highlights, and the supply pressure is increasing. The market is expected to be volatile and weak, with the upper pressure at 7200 - 7300 and the lower support at 6800 - 6900. The recommended strategies are to buy 09 and sell 01 in the inter - period, and no cross - variety strategy is recommended for now [6][7][8]. 3.1.2 Polyethylene - China's polyethylene production enterprise capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The demand is in the off - season, with weak terminal orders. The cost has decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. The market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations, with the 09 contract having an upper pressure of 7400 and a lower support of 7100 - 7200. No inter - period or cross - variety strategy is recommended [10]. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this period was 77.91%, a 0.60% increase. Sinopec's capacity utilization rate was 81.53%, a 1.96% increase [24]. - In August, there are still some large - scale maintenance plans, but new production capacity and restarts have led to an increase in production. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 520.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 11.7% [22][26][28]. - The production inventory and trader inventory have decreased. The total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 82.74 tons, a 3.41% decrease from the previous period [30][34]. 3.2.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polypropylene have different performances. The BOPP industry has increased its start - up rate, order days, and has a high - level finished product inventory, but its profit is at a low level due to over - capacity. The tape mother roll industry has a flat start - up rate but an increase in order days. The plastic weaving industry has a flat start - up rate and order days. The non - woven fabric industry has an increased start - up rate and a moderately high finished product inventory. The CPP industry has increased its start - up rate and order days [43][51][53][58][60]. 3.3 Polyethylene Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Supply - The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises in China was 86.82%, a 1.1% increase from the previous period. The production this week was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase from last week. The expected maintenance loss in August will decrease compared to July. The potential new production capacity in 2025 is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [10][70][71][72]. - The production enterprise inventory and social inventory have decreased. The sample inventory of polyethylene production enterprises was 44.45 tons, a 13.76% decrease from the previous period [74][77]. 3.3.2 Demand - The downstream industries of polyethylene are in the off - season. The agricultural film industry has an increased start - up rate but a decrease in order days. The packaging film industry has a decreased start - up rate and order days. The pipe and hollow industries have a lower start - up rate compared to the same period last year [86][87][88].