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煤炭开采行业周报:查超产影响下供给恢复偏慢,煤炭基本面旺季强势依旧-20250817
Guohai Securities·2025-08-17 12:34

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing a slow recovery in supply due to the impact of overproduction checks, with strong fundamentals in the coal market continuing [1][8] - The report highlights that the port coal prices have increased by 16 CNY/ton week-on-week, with prices in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia also rising [4][14] - The overall production recovery is cautious due to policies and maintenance issues, leading to tight supply conditions [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Supply recovery remains limited, with port inventories decreasing and prices rising [14] - As of August 15, the Qinhuangdao port price for thermal coal reached 698 CNY/ton, up 16 CNY/ton week-on-week [15] - The production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region slightly increased by 0.13 percentage points [20] 2. Coking Coal - The production capacity utilization for coking coal decreased by 0.62 percentage points due to safety and overproduction checks [39] - The average customs clearance at Ganqimaodu port was 1,081 trucks, down 69 trucks week-on-week [43] - Coking coal prices at the port remained stable at 1,610 CNY/ton as of August 15 [40] 3. Coke - The demand for coke remains strong, with inventory levels at a yearly low [49] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to approximately 20 CNY/ton, up 36 CNY/ton week-on-week [53] - The production rate of independent coking plants was 74.15%, with a slight increase [56] 4. Anthracite - Anthracite prices remained stable, with the price for small blocks at 900 CNY/ton as of August 15 [69] - The demand from downstream power plants is stable, providing support for the market [69] 5. Key Companies and Investment Logic - The report emphasizes the investment value of leading coal companies, highlighting their strong cash flow and profitability [8] - Recommended stocks include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, among others [9]