策略周报：当下或是牛市主升浪的前期-20250817

Group 1 - The current market phase is likely the early stage of a bull market's main wave, supported by three main reasons: (1) Market turnover rate typically reaches the initial high point of the bull market during the main wave, but the current turnover rate remains significantly lower than the peak observed on October 8, 2024 [2][6][7] - (2) There are significant style changes between the early and late stages of a bull market. Since April 2025, small-cap stocks have been leading, indicating that if this is indeed the early stage of the main wave, a shift to large-cap stocks may occur in the later stage [2][6][16] - (3) During the main wave of a bull market, equity financing usually increases rapidly to historical highs, but current levels remain low. Historical bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015 saw significant increases in equity financing during their main waves, while current financing levels are still recovering slowly [2][23][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the second half of 2025 may experience a sustained main wave of the bull market, with characteristics similar to previous bull markets in 2013-2014 and 2019. The market is expected to respond positively to policy changes and structural opportunities, with a gradual increase in resident capital inflows [25][26] - Recent market performance shows that major A-share indices have generally risen, with notable gains in sectors such as communication and electronics, while banks and steel have underperformed [31][32] - The report suggests a shift in investment strategy towards more flexible allocations, particularly increasing exposure to non-bank financials and sectors benefiting from AI applications, as well as cyclical stocks that may show resilience in the coming months [29][30]