Guohai Securities·2025-08-17 13:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group-SW (9618.HK) [1][20] Core Views - JD Group's Q2 2025 revenue reached 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 18%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][10] - The company's adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin in JD Retail, despite losses from new businesses like food delivery [6][10] - The retail segment showed strong growth, with revenue from the 1P electronics category increasing by 23% year-on-year to 179 billion yuan, and the 1P daily necessities category growing by 16% to 103.4 billion yuan [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 356.7 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ +18%), with a gross profit of 56.6 billion yuan (YoY +23%, QoQ +18%) [5][10] - Operating profit was -0.9 billion yuan (YoY -108%, QoQ -108%), and net profit was 6.7 billion yuan (YoY -51%, QoQ -41%) [5][10] - Non-GAAP net profit was 7.4 billion yuan (YoY -49%, QoQ -42%) [5][10] Retail Segment - JD Retail revenue grew by 21% year-on-year to 310.1 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with an operating profit margin of 4.5% [6][9] - The growth was driven by a robust recovery in consumer spending and government subsidy policies [6][9] Logistics Segment - JD Logistics revenue reached 51.6 billion yuan (YoY +17%, QoQ +10%), with a slight decrease in operating profit margin to 3.8% [9] - The integrated supply chain customer revenue grew by 19.9% year-on-year, with over 70,000 external customers [9] New Business Initiatives - New business revenue, including food delivery, reached 13.9 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 14.8 billion yuan [9] - The food delivery segment has shown significant user growth, with daily orders reaching 25 million [9] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,323.58 billion yuan, 1,420.01 billion yuan, and 1,512.77 billion yuan respectively [17][18] - The target market capitalization for JD Group in 2026 is set at 544.5 billion yuan, with a target price of 171 yuan per share [17][18]