固收周报20250817：如何缓解当前转债配置踏空焦虑？-20250817

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: During the week of August 11 - 15, the Russia - Ukraine conflict showed signs of improvement. The market focused on Powell's potential hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting. The long - end of U.S. Treasuries remained in a wide - range oscillation of 4.0 - 4.5%, with the term spread narrowing marginally. It's believed that the Fed is likely to restart rate cuts in the remaining time of 2025, with a possible 25 - 50bp downward adjustment of the policy rate. This may support the high valuation of U.S. stocks, steepen the curve, and boost the valuation of global risk assets. The views are to be long on the short - end of U.S. Treasuries and gold [1][35][36]. - Domestic: The domestic equity market continued its "slow - bull" pattern last week, and micro - cap stocks reached a turning point. It's thought that equities are moving from valuation repair to performance repair, and the "slow - bull" pattern may continue with the potential Fed rate cut in September. Convertible bonds rose following equities, with equal - weighted better than weighted. High - priced bonds significantly outperformed low - priced ones, and low - priced slightly outperformed medium - priced. To address the fear of missing out, one can: 1) directly increase the allocation of convertible bond ETFs with incremental funds; 2) increase the allocation of bank and cyclical stocks that have fallen recently; 3) widen the convertible bond income range to a cap of 150 yuan to dig for excess returns of thematic stocks [1][36]. - Next week: The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair are: Hexing Convertible Bond, Pufa Convertible Bond, Jinneng Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, Liuyao Convertible Bond, Jiangong Convertible Bond, Qingnong Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, and Nenghua Convertible Bond [1][36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Market Review 3.1.1. Equity Market - Overall, the equity market rose from August 11 - 15. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70% to 3696.77, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.55% to 11634.67, the ChiNext Index rose 8.58% to 2534.22, and the CSI 300 rose 2.37% to 4202.35. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 4031.28 billion yuan to 16748.23 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 24.07%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 20 industries rose, with 12 industries rising more than 2%. Communication, electronics, non - bank finance, power equipment, and computer led the gains, while banking, steel, textile and apparel, coal, and public utilities led the losses [6][8][14]. 3.1.2. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market also rose, with a gain of 1.60% to 475.25. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries rose, with 9 industries rising more than 2%. Non - bank finance, communication, machinery and equipment, automobile, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, while social services, banking, national defense and military industry, coal, and beauty care led the losses. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 963.64 billion yuan, a significant increase of 68.16 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 7.61%. About 78.63% of individual bonds rose, with 27.53% rising between 0 - 1% and 33.04% rising more than 2% [6][15]. 3.1.3. Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - From August 11 - 15, the weekly weighted average and median of convertible bonds and underlying stocks were positive, and convertible bonds had a larger weekly increase. In terms of trading volume, the convertible bond market's trading volume increased by 13.07% week - on - week, at the 90.00% quantile since 2022, while the underlying stock market's trading volume increased by 16.85%, at the 96.10% quantile. About 78.79% of convertible bonds and 60.39% of underlying stocks rose, and about 55.84% of convertible bonds had a larger increase than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment of the convertible bond market was better this week [30]. 3.2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - Overseas: The long - end of U.S. Treasuries will likely maintain a wide - range oscillation of 4.0 - 4.5%. It's expected that the Fed will restart rate cuts in 2025, with a 25 - 50bp downward adjustment of the policy rate. The views are to be long on the short - end of U.S. Treasuries and gold [1][35][36]. - Domestic: The domestic equity market's "slow - bull" pattern may continue. To address the fear of missing out on convertible bonds, one can increase the allocation of convertible bond ETFs, bank and cyclical stocks, and widen the income range to 150 yuan [1][36]. - Next week: The top ten convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair are recommended [1][36].