海外宏观周报：美国通胀数据喜忧交织-20250817

Economic Policy - Trump plans to announce tariffs on steel, chips, and semiconductors within two weeks, with semiconductor tariffs potentially exceeding 100%[4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests the Fed should consider a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with rates needing to be 150 to 175 basis points lower than current levels[4] - July CPI in the U.S. remained flat at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while core CPI rose 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3%[4] - July PPI surged to 3.3%, significantly above the expected 2.5%, marking the highest level since February[4] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month in July, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth[4] - The Michigan consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to 58.6 in August, below the expected 62[4] - U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining below expectations[4] - The GDPNow model predicts a 2.5% annualized growth rate for U.S. GDP in Q3[4] Global Market Trends - Global stock markets continued to rise, with non-U.S. markets outperforming U.S. markets; U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar slightly declined[12] - The Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index dropped to 25.1 in August, down from 36.1[4] - Japan's GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1% year-on-year in Q2, marking five consecutive quarters of growth[5]