Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-17 13:28Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the high-end domestic cosmetics brand Mao Geping, projecting a net profit of 1.184 billion, 1.542 billion, and 1.953 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of +34%, +30%, and +27% respectively [15]. Core Insights - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector underperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index growing by only 0.1% from August 8 to August 15, 2025, lagging behind the Shenwan A Index by 3.0 percentage points [6][7]. - Domestic brands are actively preparing for the upcoming consumption peak, with significant announcements from brands like Proya and Up Beauty, indicating a strategic focus on high-end markets [12]. - Mao Geping's performance in H1 2025 shows a strong revenue forecast of 2.57 billion to 2.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.4% to 31.9%, and a net profit of 665 million to 675 million yuan, indicating robust profitability in the high-end domestic makeup segment [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector's performance was weaker than the overall market, with specific indices showing minimal growth [6][7]. - The top-performing stocks in the sector included Baiya Co. (+11.0%) and Nuobang Co. (+6.0%), while the worst performers were Beijia Co. (-13.1%) and Mao Geping (-9.4%) [8]. Recent Developments - The report highlights the upcoming earnings season for key domestic brands, with expectations for significant financial disclosures from companies like Runben Co. and Marubi Biological [12]. - New Oxygen Group reported a Q2 revenue of 379 million yuan, with its light medical beauty chain business showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 426% [24][25]. E-commerce and Market Trends - The report provides insights into the e-commerce performance of domestic brands, with notable growth in GMV for brands like Proya and Up Beauty, indicating a strong online presence [18]. - The retail sales of cosmetics in July 2025 showed a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, suggesting a recovery in consumer spending [19][22]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - The domestic cosmetics market is becoming increasingly competitive, with local brands gaining market share against international competitors, as evidenced by the performance of brands like Proya and Natural Hall [31][36]. - The report notes that the market for skincare products is projected to reach 271.2 billion yuan in 2024, despite a slight decline in growth [31].