供应扰动尚未完全解除，下游买盘逐步释放

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly, with significant increases in the closing prices of LC2509 and LC2511 contracts and the spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate. The price of lithium hydroxide also continued to rise [2][11]. - After the suspension of production at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market shifted from expected trading to real - time trading, and the balance sheet for the third quarter will turn into a de - stocking phase. In August, the market is in a tight balance, while the gap will widen in September. Longer - term production suspension will significantly narrow the annual surplus [3][12]. - The supply - side disturbances are not completely resolved, and there are concerns about potential production cuts in other projects in Qinghai and Jiangxi. On the demand side, the third - quarter is characterized by "off - season not so off", with the production of cells and materials increasing monthly driven by energy - storage demand. In the short term, prices are expected to remain strong. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, look for opportunities to go long on dips, and avoid mid - term short positions for now [3][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Supply Disturbances Not Fully Resolved, Downstream Buying Interest Gradually Released - From August 11th to 15th, lithium salt prices rebounded strongly. The closing price of LC2509 increased by 13.4% to 86,900 yuan/ton, and that of LC2511 increased by 12.9% to 86,900 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 15% to 82,700 and 80,400 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of SMM coarse - particle and micron - powder battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 12% to 74,000 and 79,000 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - After the production suspension at Jianxiaowo on August 9th, the market moved from expected trading to real - time trading, with a 13% increase in the week. The production loss will lead to de - stocking in the third - quarter balance sheet. In August, the market is in a tight balance, and the gap will widen in September. Longer - term suspension will narrow the annual surplus. After the actual production cut, downstream purchasing interest recovered, and the acceleration of SMM price adjustments and the narrowing of the basis and monthly long - term contract spread stimulated downstream buying [12]. 3.2 Week - to - Week Industry News Review - In July, China's power - battery loading volume was 55.9GWh, a 4.0% month - on - month decrease but a 34.3% year - on - year increase. Among them, ternary battery loading volume was 10.9GWh (19.6% of the total, up 1.9% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery loading volume was 44.9GWh (80.4% of the total, down 5.3% month - on - month and up 49.0% year - on - year) [15]. - CATL's Yichun project suspended mining operations after the mining license expired on August 9th and is applying for a renewal. The impact on the company's overall operations is small [15]. - US - based Piedmont Lithium's North American Lithium (NAL) set a new production record in the second quarter, producing 58,500 tons of lithium concentrate and shipping about 67,200 tons. Piedmont expects lithium - spodumene shipments to reach 113,000 - 125,000 tons by 2025 [15]. - The Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation, maintain industrial safety, and promote the high - quality development of the lithium industry [16]. - Sigma Lithium's lithium production increased by 38% in the second quarter, and the total sustaining cash cost decreased by 24% year - on - year. However, the total sales volume decreased by 23%, and the net loss widened [16]. 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Rebound - The spot average price of lithium - spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 21.0% to 940 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.3.2 Lithium Salts: The Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The closing prices of lithium - carbonate futures contracts, including LC2509 and LC2511, and spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate all increased significantly [11][12]. - The price of lithium hydroxide continued to rise, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate widened [11]. 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediate Products: Quotes Slightly Rebound - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt - acid lithium all increased to varying degrees [12]. 3.3.4 Terminal: China's New - Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Slightly Increased in July - In July, China's new - energy vehicle penetration rate slightly increased, and the power - battery loading volume showed certain changes in structure and scale [15]