Changjiang Securities·2025-08-17 13:45Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the domestic raw coal production has turned negative year-on-year, with a significant increase in thermal power generation during the peak season. The report anticipates that the demand for thermal coal will remain resilient due to high temperatures and the upcoming "golden September and silver October" non-electric peak season, which may support continued price increases for thermal coal. The report also emphasizes the defensive allocation value of coal stocks due to their high dividend yield and low allocation in the current coal sector [2][12][25]. Supply Summary - Domestic raw coal production in July was 38.099 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year and down 9.5% month-on-month. From January to July, the total production was 2.779 billion tons, up 3.8% year-on-year [6][15]. - The import of coal and lignite in July was 35.61 million tons, down 22.94% year-on-year but up 7.8% month-on-month. The cumulative import from January to July was 25.731 million tons, down 13.0% year-on-year [12][17]. Demand Summary - In July, thermal power generation increased by 4.3% year-on-year and 21.9% month-on-month, with total domestic power generation reaching 926.7 billion kWh, up 3.1% year-on-year and 16.4% month-on-month. The report notes that the demand for thermal coal is supported by high electricity consumption due to summer heat [25][26]. - The report indicates that the demand for non-electric coal, particularly in cement production, has decreased, with July cement output at 14.557 million tons, down 5.6% year-on-year [30][34]. Future Outlook - For thermal coal, the report expects continued upward price momentum due to sustained electricity demand driven by high temperatures and the upcoming non-electric peak season. Key factors to monitor include production checks and the sustainability of terminal demand [2][12]. - For coking coal, the report notes that supply is tight due to production controls and safety regulations, with short-term price stability expected. The report suggests that there may be opportunities for strategic allocation in coking coal following policy catalysts and the release of negative mid-term reports [2][12][35].