GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-08-17 13:42Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new home prices have seen a smaller decline compared to second-hand homes, with a national average drop of 10.8% from the 2021 peak and a 2.0% decline from the 2024 "930" benchmark [11][12]. - The second-hand home market is facing more significant challenges, with prices down 18.7% from the 2021 peak and 3.8% from the 2024 "930" benchmark, indicating a more pessimistic outlook for many cities [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy changes and their impact on the market, suggesting that the real estate sector serves as an economic barometer [4]. Summary by Sections National Housing Price Overview - As of July, new home prices in 70 cities have decreased by 10.8% from the 2021 peak, with Shanghai showing the strongest performance [11]. - Second-hand home prices have nearly erased the slight gains made since last year, with many cities falling below the "930" benchmark [12]. Transaction Trends - In the latest week, new home sales across 30 cities totaled 132.7 million square meters, reflecting a 9.6% increase month-on-month but a 12.8% decrease year-on-year [27]. - Second-hand home transactions in 14 sample cities reached 178.7 million square meters, up 3.8% from the previous week but down 2.8% year-on-year [35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly those with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from policy changes, including companies like Greentown China and China Overseas Development [4]. - The report advocates for a city selection strategy that favors first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better sales performance [4].