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样本城市周度高频数据全追踪:7月开工未售去化周期较6月下降-20250817
CMS·2025-08-17 13:36

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the year-on-year decline in new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas has narrowed, with new housing transactions down by 17% and second-hand housing down by 2% as of August 14, 2025 [4][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the difference between net rental yield and mortgage rates as a key observation for total demand in the new and second-hand housing markets [5]. - It suggests that the new housing market may see improvements earlier than the second-hand market due to expectations of reduced supply and enhanced quality [5]. - The report also notes that the current price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0, reflecting concerns about the impact of current housing sales on business models, indicating that the sector has entered an investment range [5]. Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions has narrowed, with a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year, while the month-on-month figures are at a low level compared to the past five years [9][11]. - The report indicates that the average daily transaction area for new and second-hand housing is below the levels of the same period in previous years [19]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions has also narrowed, with a decrease of 2% as of August 14, 2025 [4][14]. - The report notes that the transaction area for second-hand housing is at a mid-level compared to the past five years [17]. Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to July 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 6%, while the average transaction price has increased by 32% [21]. - The report highlights that the land premium rate has increased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous month [27]. Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates that the unsold inventory and the de-stocking cycle for newly started projects have decreased compared to June, suggesting a slight improvement in inventory management [30][33]. - The de-stocking cycle for unsold properties has shown mixed trends across different city tiers, with first-tier cities experiencing a decrease in unsold inventory [33].